We begin the New Year on an optimistic note. We project that the coronavirus recession ended in the third quarter and a new economic cycle is underway.

There were two distinct themes at play in the markets during the third quarter. Markets were initially buoyed by surprisingly strong economic and earnings reports.

The first half of the year has seen unprecedented volatility. We saw both the fastest bear market ever and the best 50-day return since 1933 in one single contiguous time period from late February to early June.

It was not too long ago that prospects for the global economy appeared promising on the heels of recent breakthroughs.

Stocks delivered remarkably strong performance in 2019. A year that began shrouded in doom and gloom under the overhang of recessionary fears seemed to brighten with each passing month.

Global equity markets are up significantly in 2019 as they continue to rebound from last year's sharp selloff. The S&P 500 index reclaimed new highs on its way to a 19% gain in the first half of 2019, the Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose by 17% and the global MSCI All Country index advanced by 14%.

Global equity markets are up significantly in 2019 as they continue to rebound from last year's sharp selloff. The S&P 500 index reclaimed new highs on its way to a 19% gain in the first half of 2019, the Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose by 17% and the global MSCI All Country index advanced by 14%.

Global stock markets have seen a remarkable turnaround so far in 2019 from their lows in December. Two consecutive calendar quarters have rarely been so different in market sentiment or performance. The S&P 500 index plunged by –13.5% in the fourth quarter of 2018 on fears of an impending recession and concerns about a policy mistake by the Fed. Those worries have since dissipated as the index soared by +13.6% in the first quarter of 2019. In early April, equity indices have climbed back to within striking distance of their previous all-time highs.

As we embark on 2019, investors are still in a daze after a challenging few weeks in the global stock markets. Volatility picked up in early 2018, subsided in the middle of the year and then reached almost unprecedented levels in the fourth quarter. The number of outsized daily and intraday moves in December shot up dramatically and approached all-time highs.