Aug 16th

Actionable Ideas: End of Easy Money

The market turmoil in 2022 so far is in sharp contrast to the heady mix of stimulative policy and low volatility in 2021. In 2022, persistently high inflation has led to tighter monetary policy and slower growth.

As a long cycle of easy money draws to an end, we discuss several implications of a more normalized regime of inflation, interest rates, and valuations.

In the short term …

  • Have we just seen that elusive peak in inflation or will the data flatten to deceive?
  • How far behind is the Fed in its tightening cycle and how far does it need to go from here?
  • Are we in a recession now?  If not, when will it arrive and how long will it last?
  • How severe and protracted will the bear market be for stocks and other risky assets?

There are even more intriguing questions on the other side of this economic slowdown.

In the longer run …

  • Where will inflation and interest rates eventually settle?
  • What will stock and bond returns look like?

These are extraordinary times of change, challenge and chaos. We hope these insights help our readers navigate this unusually high market volatility.