The Shifting Dynamics of Global Oil Markets
For nearly 60 years, global oil markets have been largely influenced by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The combined oil production of the 14-member-nation group makes up about 30% of the world’s total production, with Saudi Arabia representing over a third of that production. It shouldn’t come as a surprise that Saudi […]
The Valuation Conundrum
Global equity markets are up significantly in 2019 as they continue to rebound from last year’s sharp selloff. The S&P 500 index reclaimed new highs on its way to a 19% gain in the first half of 2019, the Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose by 17% and the global MSCI All Country index […]
Inversions, Recessions and Expansions
Global stock markets have seen a remarkable turnaround so far in 2019 from their lows in December. Two consecutive calendar quarters have rarely been so different in market sentiment or performance. The S&P 500 index plunged by –13.5% in the fourth quarter of 2018 on fears of an impending recession and concerns about a policy […]
Growth Scare… Or a Recession?
As we embark on 2019, investors are still in a daze after a challenging few weeks in the global stock markets. Volatility picked up in early 2018, subsided in the middle of the year and then reached almost unprecedented levels in the fourth quarter. The number of outsized daily and intraday moves in December shot […]
Decoupling of Global Growth
At the beginning of 2017, we wrote about an impending synchronized revival of global growth. While we saw uniformly stronger growth around the world last year, we now observe divergent regional growth trajectories. On the heels of fiscal stimulus and deregulation, the U.S. continues to dominate the growth story. Real GDP growth of 4.2% in […]
Two Physicists Walk Into a Wealth Management Office…
They played geniuses on television, and they’re clearly talented actors, but there’s a big challenge ahead for the cast of the hit TV show The Big Bang Theory: what do they do next? With millions in their respective pockets, the choices are nearly limitless. Some could opt for early retirement. Consider this: before taking a […]
Goldilocks Trumps Tariffs
Stocks continue to grind higher in a slow and bumpy recovery from their first quarter selloff. By the end of July, U.S. stocks had retraced most of the declines from their January highs and were solidly positive for the year. A big driver of this rebound has been solid economic growth and even more spectacular […]
Gifting Wealth Through Education
When a child comes into the world, we spend ample time considering how to protect and prepare them for the life ahead. For most, creating a plan that incrementally saves for big ticket items like education, possible medical needs or celebratory events is part of every parent’s job. As we anticipate the trajectory of their […]
The Growth Conundrum
After an abnormally calm and placid 2017 in the global equity markets, a higher and more normal level of volatility has resurfaced in 2018. The year got off to a good start as the momentum from tax cuts pushed U.S. stocks higher by 8% in January. Investor focus shifted in early February to an uptick […]
Stock Valuations – Frothy, Elevated or Fair?
I. THE VALUATION QUESTION Stock prices rose sharply during 2017 in a remarkably coordinated rally around the globe. Even for the most optimistic forecaster, the sheer magnitude of the surge and its unusually smooth trajectory probably came as unexpected, but welcome, surprises. Most notably, 2017 enjoyed the unprecedented outcomes of positive returns in each of […]