Ultra-high-net-worth individuals and their families are facing some big challenges, and many are seeking the counsel of multi-family offices to help them navigate uncharted waters.
InvestmentNewshas been speaking with Elizabeth Anderson, vice president of business development at Whittier Trust, to find out more about the issues facing UHNWIs and how the multi-family office approach can offer more than that of a single-family office.
Anderson has been with the oldest West Coast-headquartered multi-family office for a decade, and Whittier started as a single-family office for real estate and petroleum pioneer Max Whittier in 1935. Over its almost 90 years, the firm has been driven by its early realization that its role is not just about managing and preserving a family’s wealth, but the impact it has on the family.
“Our experience with one generational family inspired the transformation into the Whittier Trust multi-family office,” Anderson said, adding that its services include investment management and consulting, trust services, family office, philanthropy, family continuity, real estate management and investing.
Family Dynamics
Anderson says that demand for multi-family offices is growing as families seek hands-on teams who can manage their wealth and business, but also the intergenerational transfer of both.
Often, this will be prompted by a change of family dynamics.
“A great example of this was when a single-family office moved to Whittier Trust after the family patriarch died, and it became clear that the SFO was unable to effectively serve the evolved needs of the family,” she said. “Clarifying trust terms, managing ownership changes, meeting cash flow needs, educating family members and dealing with new family leadership dynamics inspired some of the staff to retire and others to scratch their heads about what to do next. As a part of this step, we will help families determine clear lines of communication, rules of engagement and methods for conflict resolution that resonate with all generations.”
After an initial period of assessing the family’s assets and designing the new family office around the family’s culture and needs, there were challenges related to dynamics that required careful management to unite them around shared purpose and values.
“More than five years later, we have seen this family through divorces and graduations, family illness and new careers,” added Anderson. “Their wealth has grown substantially, and family members understand their family legacy. They are confident that their wealth will support their ongoing needs and those of their children. The next time they experience a death or significant change, they will be prepared.”
Philanthropy is one way that the Whittier Trust team finds it can unite families.
“Philanthropy can be more than just a vehicle for charitable giving; it can also be an apparatus for the family to have something outside their immediate concerns that they can all work toward and grow together,” Anderson said.
Anderson says that many clients want to take a hands-off approach to their wealth management, to allow them to focus on their passions.
“For example, within one UHNW family, one client enrolled in art school to develop her skills in oil painting. Another started spending summers in Montana to fly fish more often. A third started a non-profit benefiting at-risk children. Having a family office managing their personal and financial details allowed each member to spend their time in a more meaningful way,” she said.
Biggest Challenges
Along with the intergenerational transfers of wealth and business, what does Anderson see as the biggest challenge faced by UNHWIs and their families currently?
Tax is a major consideration for Whittier’s team and is often complex given the diverse assets of UHNW families.
“Asset location, distinct from asset allocation, is crucial for maximizing after-tax returns. Our portfolio managers look at placing tax-inefficient assets, like corporate bonds and high-turnover strategies, in tax-deferred or tax-exempt accounts to grow tax-free,” Anderson shared. “For taxable accounts, our advisors employ tax-efficient investments such as low-turnover stocks, direct indexing, low-dividend growth equities, municipal bonds, or preferreds with qualified dividends to optimize compounding. Our investment managers also allocate growth assets to accounts intended for future generations and income assets to those with shorter time frames.”
In conclusion, Anderson noted that there is a skill set that is key for those who work with Whittier’s clients.
“We invest in our people with extensive training and support to make certain that we are listening to our clients, being empathetic and building a strong foundation with them. While academic intelligence is always important, we also pride ourselves on valuing EQ among our teams,” she said.
Interview with Elizabeth Anderson, Vice President at Whittier Trust. Elizabeth is based out of the Pasadena office and focuses on family business transitions, succession planning and pre-liquidity personal planning.
For more information, start a conversation with a Whittier Trust advisor today by visiting our contact page.
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What ultra-high-net-worth individuals need to consider when mulling an exit.
In my role at Whittier Trust, I've seen firsthand how critical it is for ultra-high-net-worth individuals (UHNWIs) to have a well-thought-out exit strategy for their family businesses. Despite the intensive planning that typically goes into wealth management, recent research from the Exit Planning Institute suggests that a staggering 80% of business owners lack solid exit strategies, leaving their wealth in limbo and risking economic continuity for future generations.
The planning process of an exit strategy can often be fraught with uncertainty and potential pitfalls, making it a critical issue for business owners nearing retirement or a transfer of ownership or leadership. Here are the five key questions UHNWIs should ask their advisors to ensure a smooth and successful transition.
1.How many different exit strategies are available to me?
Understanding the various ways you can exit is fundamental to choosing the right path for your business. Each exit strategy has unique implications and suitability depending on your business's circumstances and your personal objectives. Here's a breakdown:
Generational Family Transfer
When multiple generations of a family are actively involved in the business, an owner might prioritize business legacy and family engagement over the sale price. If the objective is to keep the business in the family, the exit plan might involve transferring company stock, often at a discount, to direct heirs over many years. While keeping a majority stake in the company and control over operations, the owner can transfer assets to the next generation while still mentoring and training the next leader.
A generational family transfer can play out in a variety of ways: the owner may ultimately sell stock in the company to family, retire holding minority ownership or gift all stock to heirs. A successful transfer will take at least three to five years to accomplish, position the business for success, meet the owner's liquidity and financial needs after the transfer and leave the new owner(s) financially stable after the transaction.
Management Buyout
An owner who wants to sell all or part of the company to existing management might favor a management buyout. This type of ownership transition involves structuring a deal in which management uses the assets of the business to finance a significant portion of the purchase price. This can work for an owner who believes in the management team and thinks it will be able to keep the business thriving when he/she exits. However, if the management team lacks adequate liquidity, the seller may have to accept a lower price or unattractive deal terms, including heavy seller financing.
Sell to Partners
When the owner has partners and a quality buy-sell agreement, a sale to partners may be the only selling option. A buy-sell agreement generally articulates a controlled process for transferring ownership. Since the buyers fully understand the business and it's a planned process, selling to partners generally isn't too expensive. Common challenges in selling a business to partners include a lower sale price, slow transfer of proceeds and potential disagreements among partners.
Sell to Employees (ESOP)
When an owner wants to sell the company to its employees, an employee stock ownership plan (ESOP) might be the answer. In this type of sale, the company uses borrowed funds to acquire shares from the owner and contributes the shares to a trust on behalf of the employees. ESOPs require a securities registration exemption and are classified as an employee benefit, so it's an involved process. An ESOP sale takes many years to complete and is generally more expensive and complicated than other options. However, it can be a way to reward valued employees with company ownership. The tax savings to the seller can be substantial as well.
Sell to a Third Party
When the business is healthy and the owner wants to cash out, selling to a third party could be a good option. Whether the interested party is a strategic buyer, a financial buyer or a private equity group, the owner should expect to pay some big up-front costs to engage experienced professionals to guide the owner and company through the selling process. Having the right partners attending to the owner's interests, negotiating with the buyer and structuring deal terms are crucial to achieving the best outcomes.
Although the payoff can be attractive, third-party sales are not for the faint of heart. The process takes at least nine to twelve months and can be intense and emotional for the seller. Often, the seller retains some obligation to the business beyond the sale but has to be ready to give up control entirely. A third-party sale is ideal for an owner who is open to having the buyer bring new energy, ideas and change to the business.
Recapitalization
An owner who is open to having outside investors fund the company's balance sheet might consider bringing in a lender or equity investor to act as a partner in the business. By selling a minority or majority position, the owner can partially exit, monetize a portion of the business and reduce ownership risk in the company. New growth capital can bring more earnings to the original owner. When ready to exit the company completely, the original owner might sell the remaining shares through further recapitalization or another exit option.
Selling any portion of the company to an outsider can precipitate a loss of control and a cultural shift within the company. An owner who is not ready to be accountable to partners should consider this before opting to recapitalize.
2. How long before retirement should I begin thinking about my exit?
Ideally, business owners should start thinking about their exit strategy at least five to ten years before their intended retirement. This period allows for comprehensive planning that can influence key outcomes of the eventual sale. Value-building initiatives need time to succeed and show results before they can impact sale proceeds (valuation optimization). Identifying and grooming a successor — whether a family member, a key employee or an external buyer — is generally most effective over an extended period (succession planning). Structuring the business and the sale to maximize tax efficiency and comply with legal requirements is an involved process (legal and tax planning). Finally, strengthening the business's operations and financial health can make it more attractive to potential buyers (operational improvements).
3. Whatsteps should I take to optimize valuation and transition?
Optimizing your business's valuation and ensuring a smooth transition involves several strategic steps. First, conduct regular financial audits to present clear and accurate financial statements; transparency is key to attracting serious buyers and securing a favorable sale price. Next, take a look at opportunities to enhance operational efficiency to demonstrate the business's profitability and growth potential. This might involve adopting new technologies, improving processes or cutting unnecessary costs. Another crucial step is to develop a strong management team that can operate independently, as a business that doesn't rely solely on the owner is more attractive to buyers. Solidifying relationships with key customers and suppliers is also important, since long-term contracts and stable relationships add value and stability to the business. Finally, ensure the business complies with all legal and regulatory requirements. Any outstanding legal issues can deter buyers or lower the sale price.
4. What if a big part of my exit is going to be a sale or a partial sale?
If you are leaning toward a sale, either partial or complete, several considerations come into play. Engaging professionals is one of the first and most crucial steps. Working with experienced legal, financial and business advisors helps owners navigate the complexities of the sale process. Those professionals can also help with due diligence. Buyers will conduct thorough examinations of every facet of your business, including financial records, legal documents and operational data. Being prepared with detailed and organized documentation can facilitate a smoother due diligence process and instill confidence in potential buyers. This preparation not only expedites the sale process but also helps in presenting your business as a well-managed and transparent entity, which can lead to a more favorable sale price.
Identifying potential buyers is also a strategic consideration that can greatly influence the sale’s success. Depending on your business's nature and industry, potential buyers could be competitors, private equity firms or even international investors. Identifying and approaching the right buyers ensures that you attract parties who see the most value in your business.
5. How should I structure sale deals?
Structuring a sale deal requires careful planning and negotiation to balance your needs with the buyer's. This involves key elements like payment terms, which can be a one-time lump sum or installments. You might even consider seller financing, which can make the deal more attractive but comes with the risk of the buyer defaulting. Another option is to structure earn-out payments tied to the business’s future performance, which can bridge valuation gaps but require clear metrics and timelines. Noncompete agreements are often requested by buyers to prevent owners from starting a competing business post-sale, so ensure the terms are reasonable and don’t unduly restrict future options.
The structure of the deal can also significantly impact your tax liabilities. Understanding the tax implications of different payment structures is crucial, as installment payments may help spread the tax liability over several years. Work with wealth management advisors to explore strategies that could mitigate your tax burden. Experienced legal counsel can help you draft and review all agreements, focusing on representations and warranties to minimize future liabilities and ensuring provisions for indemnification to protect against potential future claims or disputes.
You will also have to decide whether you'll stay involved in the business after the sale, in either a consulting capacity or a more formal role. This can ease the transition and provide additional income, but it might also limit your ability to fully step away. Don't forget to consider how the sale aligns with your personal and family goals. Reflect on how the sale proceeds will be integrated into your overall estate plan, ensuring the structure supports your legacy and philanthropic goals. Also assess how the sale structure impacts your lifestyle and plans, whether it involves retirement, new business ventures or other personal endeavors.
The transition of a family business is a complex process that requires careful planning and execution. By asking your advisors the right questions, you can ensure a smooth and successful exit that secures your legacy and financial future.
Written by Elizabeth Anderson, Vice President at Whittier Trust. Elizabeth is based out of the Pasadena office and focuses on family business transitions, succession planning and pre-liquidity personal planning.
For more information, start a conversation with a Whittier Trust advisor today by visiting our contact page.
From Investments to Family Office to Trustee Services and more, we are your single-source solution.
Next-gen philanthropy is about more than just giving money away.
Philanthropy is about helping others and offering invaluable funding to support communities and causes. With a family foundation, it’s also about preserving a legacy andbringing family members together in the name of a shared cause or purpose. The styleand look of a family foundation varies, and it’s important to consider how to engage the next generation in all aspects of the foundation.
Junior boards—also called associate boards—can be a powerful tool in helping prime thenext generation for leadership, and they can be highly personalized in structure, style, andpurpose. They can be as small as a few members, or as large as 20 or more, and the agelimitations can be anywhere from pre-teen to mid-30s. These launch pads areinstrumental in not only growing the foundation’s reach but also growing the junior board members as individuals.
“Junior boards help teach the next generation about the foundation and its mission, howit’s structured and more. It’s a good way to strengthen members’ financial literacy skills. Ithelps them learn about the value of money, investing the foundation’s assets, learningabout the stock market and the power of giving with an eye on both strategy and passion,”says Jesse Ostroff, Assistant Vice President and Client Advisor for Whittier Trust’sPhilanthropic Services. Junior boards can also help strengthen familial ties, preparemembers to transition to the main board and help members discover more about themselves. Here’s how.
Strengthening Family Bonds
Junior boards can help strengthen a family’s bond, especially if there are many branchesor if the members aren’t particularly physically or emotionally close. “It’s a good way forcousins or more distant relatives to be able to collaborate and decide how and where themoney should go,” says Ostroff, who adds that working together is helpful in makingjunior board members feel less alone in their giving.
Even close-knit junior boards can deepen their relationship. Ostroff recalls one example of a small junior board that had been working together for many years. Whittier Trustfacilitated an opportunity for them to share during a family retreat, where each membermade a presentation on their chosen grantee organization, describing why they felt it wasworthy of support and providing an overview of the diligence they had conducted on it.“It was during the pandemic so it took place over Zoom,” Ostroff noted, “but it workedreally well, and the subject matter helped them develop deeper connections with eachother and with the foundation Board.” One of the unanticipated outcomes was a numberof cousins deciding to collaborate and support each other’s chosen organizations. “Eventhough you’re family, you don’t always take the time to listen and hear about each other’s interests,” he says. “This opportunity strengthened family ties in a natural, organic way.”
Facilitating Family Continuity
Family foundations often struggle with succession plans, so establishing a well-functioningjunior board can help smooth younger family members’ transition to the main board. Butit also takes intentionality. “Part of our role is to get the junior board excited enough towant to devote time and attention to their philanthropy, despite the competing demands ofcareer and family,” says Ostroff, whose team does this by showing interest in juniormembers as individuals, having strategic conversations with them about the change they’dlike to see in the world, and accompanying them on site visits to grantee organizations sothey can see first-hand the impact they’re having.
Conversely, some junior board members are exuberant and need help focusing their interests and reining their strategies. Ostroff recalls one junior board of teenagers whowere excited to be participating in their family’s philanthropy, but they hadn’t yetidentified a mission and felt daunted by the responsibility to give money away. To theircredit, they wanted to do it right and didn’t know where to begin. “We convened thegroup and used a core values game to help them to identify first the family’s core values,and then their individual values,” he says. “From there, it was easier for them to select oneor two focus areas for their grantmaking, and then to drill down and choose particular nonprofits they wanted to support.”
Inspiring Personal Growth
Ostroff’s favorite aspect of his job is watching junior board members grow through theirparticipation in the family’s philanthropy. “They develop life skills, such as financialliteracy, respectful communication, critical thinking, and collaboration, that set them up forsuccess in their careers and relationships.” As they begin to see the myriad benefits ofaligning their family’s wealth and values, younger family members become more effectivestewards of the wealth they may eventually inherit.
Whittier Trust helps create, manage and develop junior boards, tailoring their recommendations and plans to a family’s philanthropic mission and grantmaking style,while simultaneously helping them find their own philanthropic voice. “As the nextgeneration moves up, there will be new societal challenges, new philanthropic trends andopportunities. Millennial and Gen Z family members are coming of age in a world that iscompletely different from the one their grandparents inhabited,” says Ostroff. “And we’reable to provide them with the tools and support they will need to meet their moment andmake their own impact.”
If you’re ready to explore how Whittier Trust’s tailored philanthropic services can work for you, start a conversation with a Whittier Trust advisor today by visiting our contact page.
From Investments to Family Office to Trustee Services and more, we are your single-source solution.
How smart entrepreneurs future-proof their legacy.
Most entrepreneurs who have built a corporation to a valuation in the hundreds of millions (or higher) will tell you about a beginning filled with hard work, sleepless nights and worry over whether or not their business would survive. We work with many family businesses that are now worth over a billion dollars, but they all started somewhere.
Those early days are the ideal time to strategize for future success by shielding yourself and your business from unnecessary tax burdens, maximizing the impact of your legacy and creating terms that fulfill your vision. However, many of those same entrepreneurs who are so good at building a business from the ground up fail to forecast 20 or 30 years into the future. They're too focused on the now. Unfortunately, by the time a business reaches the pinnacle of its success, it may be too late to fully take advantage of the opportunities that existed early on.
That's where an experienced multifamily office comes in: they are specialists in helping individuals, entrepreneurs and families think far ahead and lay the necessary groundwork for a best-case scenario. The goal is to maximize potential returns and help “future-proof” clients' legacies, allowing them to fully enjoy the fruits of their hard work.
Easing Tax Burdens
When a company isn't worth a fortune, it's easy to forget about what might happen when its value rises. One important step is to qualify for Qualified Small Business Stock (QSBS) when the business is worth less than $50 million. Setting up a business to qualify for the QSBS isn't overly challenging. The entity must be a domestic C Corp, at least 80% of the corporation's assets must be used to conduct one or more qualified trades and originally acquired stock must be held for a minimum of five years, among other requirements. However, this process must be diligently undertaken to ensure entrepreneurs can reap the benefits down the line.
With QSBS, 100% of the gain from a sale can be excluded from federal income tax (subject to certain limitations), which can amount to a fortune if a company is sold for a high value. A number of multifamily office — and, more specifically, those with robust trust services — can both serve in an advisory capacity and handle the execution of the necessary steps (such as engaging and managing the right tax and legal professionals), allowing the entrepreneur to focus on growing the business.
Location, Location, Location
If there's any flexibility regarding where a business is located, multifamily offices can help set owners up in the most tax-advantaged position. For example, businesses located in California are subject to one of the highest corporate tax rates in the nation at 8.84%. If the income is generated by California real estate or headquartered in California, there's no way to escape that rate.
However, if the business can be headquartered in a more tax-advantaged state such as Nevada, which does not levy a corporate income tax, it might be worth considering. To help smooth the generational transition, some families utilize a trust situs in Nevada to hold their shares of the business. Nevada situs can help avoid California income taxes and California capital gains taxes (which amount to 13.3%) upon the sale of the business.
Mitigating Future Estate Taxes
If businesses grow inside a taxable estate, the government takes 40% of the value upon the owner's passing. For entrepreneurs who are building a successful corporation, it can be beneficial to allocate some shares into a trust outside of the taxable estate, where they can grow in value without being subject to the estate tax. There are a variety of trusts that allow owners to reap the benefits of the assets during their lifetimes, while shielding the estate from an onerous tax burden.
Preserving Family Harmony
Finally, it may not be obvious, but it's important to coordinate the estate plans of all family members who are involved in the business to ensure that they are aligned with the overall succession plan. The goal is to put a master plan in place that balances financial, corporate and relational goals so that the business — and the family attached to it — will thrive in perpetuity.
Start Early for Maximum Benefits
If you're reading this and your business isn't (yet) close to the multimillion-dollar threshold, it's still important to take the time to be thoughtful about how you'll set it up for future success. You may be spending your days working on improving the current bottom line, managing staff and investing in refining your product and service offerings. Still, we've seen companies quickly catapult from a few million in assets to a much higher value, so it's important not to wait. Having a go-to team of advisors who can provide both strategy and execution to file necessary paperwork, think critically about the company's financial trajectory and maximize the benefits as it grows.
Written by Brian Bissell, Senior Vice President, Client Advisor in the Orange County office of Whittier Trust.
Featured in Family Business Magazine. To learn more about how Whittier Trust can support you, your family and your legacy through our family office services, start a conversation with a Whittier Trust advisor today by visiting our contact page.
From Investments to Family Office to Trustee Services and more, we are your single-source solution.
Whit Batchelor, from Whittier Trust's Newport Beach Office, is set to lead the expansion, strengthening client and community bonds within the region.
Whittier Trust is excited to announce the opening of its newest office in San Diego, reinforcing its deep commitment to serving clients in the region with a local, personalized approach. With a legacy rooted in Southern California, Whittier Trust has long advised clients and worked closely with charitable organizations based in San Diego. This expansion is a direct result of the wealth management company's continued growth in the region.
"Our decision to establish a full-time presence in the San Diego area reflects both the incredible growth we've seen here and the deep trust San Diego's most successful families have placed in us for decades," said David Dahl, President and CEO of Whittier Trust. "Our expansion into San Diego is also a reflection of our long-standing ties to the community," said David Dahl. "The Whittier family has a deep history in the region, and we are proud to strengthen our presence here, not just to better serve our clients, but to be closer to the charitable organizations and causes we have supported for years."
Whittier Trust's commitment to San Diego extends beyond wealth management, as the firm actively supports a variety of local organizations integral to the community. This includes the Helen Woodward Animal Center, which promotes animal welfare and pet adoption services; Scripps' Mericos Eye Institute and Whittier Diabetes Institute, advancing medical research and patient care; the San Diego-Imperial Council of the Boy Scouts of America, fostering leadership and service among youth; and the University of San Diego, where Whittier Trust contributes to higher education and leadership development initiatives.
Leading the new San Diego office is Whit Batchelor, newly appointed Executive Vice President, Client Advisor and San Diego Regional Manager. A longtime leader in Whittier Trust's Newport Beach office known for his dedication and accessibility to clients, Batchelor has worked extensively with ultra-high-net-worth individuals and families in San Diego, crafting tailor-made, multi-generational wealth management strategies. His leadership ensures a seamless transition for existing clients while setting the stage for further growth in the region.
"With this new office in San Diego, I am eager to build upon the legacy of trust, integrity and boutique service that Whittier Trust has cultivated for generations," said Batchelor. "I look forward to expanding our connections within the community, enhancing our ability to serve clients locally with tailored financial strategies and contributing to the vibrant culture of San Diego."
Complimenting this milestone of growth, this year also marks the 25th anniversary of Whittier Trust's Seattle Office. The firm also recently opened offices in Menlo Park and West Los Angeles and relocated its headquarters to a larger space in Pasadena to accommodate an increasing number of experienced professionals dedicated to serving a growing client base. As Whittier Trust continues to grow, its focus remains on providing the highest level of personalized service through a relationship-driven, client-first approach.
The office will be located at: 12770 El Camino Real, Ste 120, San Diego, CA 92130, twenty miles north of Downtown San Diego in Del Mar.
For more information about Whittier Trust's wealth management, estate planning and family office services, start a conversation with a Whittier Trust advisor today by visiting our contact page.
From Investments to Family Office to Trustee Services and more, we are your single-source solution.
The momentum from two years of remarkable economic resilience and strong market returns came to an abrupt halt in April 2025. The catalyst for market turmoil this time around was an unexpected turn in the administration’s global trade policy.
April 2, 2025 was touted as Liberation Day in anticipation of the long-awaited details on President Trump’s reciprocal tariff policy. The President used his executive authority to address the lack of reciprocity in U.S. bilateral trade relationships and to “level the playing field for American workers and manufacturers, re-shore American jobs, expand our domestic manufacturing base, and ensure our defense-industrial base is not dependent on foreign adversaries—all leading to stronger economic and national security” (Office of the United States Trade Representative).
However, the scope and magnitude of the proposed tariffs exceeded all expectations. In the initial Liberation Day proposal, all countries were subject to a minimum tariff rate of 10%. Countries with whom the U.S. has a large trade deficit were subject to even higher reciprocal tariffs.
The immediate reaction to the announcement was an immense fear of a global recession and a spike in inflation. Consistent with these fears, stocks sold off dramatically after the initial announcement. A temporary pause in reciprocal tariffs for all countries except China then halted the stock market decline. However, the U.S. dollar and bond market both fell sharply and unexpectedly during the week of April 7, 2025 in contrast to their conventional safe haven status.
We address concerns about higher inflation, higher rates, a recession, a bear market, and a weaker U.S. dollar in this article.
We are aware that this is a highly charged and contentious topic. We will, therefore, refrain from any ideological, philosophical, political, or moral judgment on the subject. We also realize that public disclosures on the topic may lack full transparency for reasons of national security. In a rapidly changing world, our views here have been penned in mid-April 2025.
How Did We Get Here?
The original impetus for higher tariffs is likely rooted in the fact that almost all of our trading partners charge a higher tariff on our exports to them than we do on their exports to us. For example, 2023 World Trade Organization data estimates that China, India and the UK have tariff rates of around 17%, 12% and 5% respectively on U.S. exports to them. In contrast, our corresponding tariffs on their exports to us are around 10%, 2% and 2% respectively. This mismatch in tariffs is probably further exacerbated by other unfair trade practices such as non-tariff barriers and currency manipulation.
The administration’s policy on tariffs may have been further emboldened by the perceived leverage of the U.S. over many of its trading partners. Figure 1 shows how this leverage is achieved. It compares the importance of a country’s imports to us (x-axis) versus the importance of U.S. exports to its own global trade (y-axis).
Figure 1: Leverage in Trade Relationships
Source: Wolfe Research, World Integrated Trade Solution as of 2022
This chart helps us understand where the U.S. has more leverage with its trading partners. We explain Figure 1 with an example. Take Vietnam for instance. All imports to the U.S. from Vietnam account for only around 4% of total U.S. imports. However, those same Vietnam exports to the U.S. account for almost 32% of its total exports. In light of this imbalance, Vietnam is far more likely to negotiate than retaliate.
In Figure 1, it is clear that Mexico, Canada and several Emerging Markets countries in Asia and South America are most dependent on trade with the U.S., while countries in the EU have more equal trading relationships. China has the most trading leverage against the U.S.; its retaliation has, therefore, been fast and furious.
These salient data points had already been priced into expectations of a higher tariff rate of around 8% prior to Liberation Day. Nonetheless, markets were caught off guard on April 2nd at two levels—by the methodology of tariff calculations and the resulting magnitude of reciprocal tariffs.
Contrary to expectations of a more targeted approach, the reciprocal tariffs were derived from a rudimentary framework that aimed to reduce bilateral trade deficits. Each country’s tariff rate was determined by dividing the U.S. trade deficit with that country by total imports from that country. This number was then cut in half to create the new U.S. “discounted” reciprocal tariff. Here are some of the initial proposed reciprocal tariffs from Liberation Day: China 34%, EU 20%, Japan 24%, India 26%, Vietnam 46%, Switzerland 31% and UK 10%.
These initial reciprocal tariffs have since been suspended for 90 days for all countries except China from April 10th. In sharp contrast, tariffs with China have escalated exponentially through a sequence of retaliations; they now stand at 145% on Chinese exports to the U.S. and 125% on U.S. exports to China. U.S. tariffs on all other countries temporarily stand at the minimum baseline of 10%.
We summarize the revised April 10th levels of tariffs in Figure 2 before turning to our inferences and forecasts.
Figure 2: Average Effective Tariff Rate as of April 10, 2025
Source: The Budget Lab, Yale University
The average global tariff rate for the U.S. is now projected to go up more than 10-fold from 2.4% to approximately 27%. We label this average tariff rate as a “pre substitution” rate since it assumes that all flows of global trade remain constant and intact at 2024 levels. However, higher tariffs on Chinese goods may well trigger substitution to other cheaper imports. The resulting “post substitution” average tariff rate is lower and estimated to be 19%.
Thoughts on Current Trade Policy
We appreciate the desire to increase the U.S. manufacturing base and reduce foreign dependencies in industries critical to national security. We also applaud the pursuit of fairer terms for global trade.
Nonetheless, we initially believed that it was sub-optimal to achieve these goals with an aggressive trade policy alone. A number of tenets in the opening approach seemed misaligned with our global leadership role, created by our own dominant economy and strong alliances with others.
The costs of high fixed trade barriers are well-known, e.g. higher prices, slower growth, less competition, less innovation, and lower standard of living. The expansive and punitive trade war in its initial formulation on April 2nd risked a U.S. recession and an alienation of our allies.
The singular focus on reducing bilateral trade deficits through high imputed tariffs also felt misguided. A large portion of the U.S. trade deficit is driven by principles of comparative advantage where cost of production is often lower overseas and by cultural differences in our lower propensity to save and greater desire to consume. Besides, the large foreign trade surpluses eventually make their way back into U.S. dollar-denominated assets giving our stocks, bonds and currency hegemonic power.
These thoughts may also have preyed on investors’ minds as they indiscriminately sold risk assets. The S&P 500 suffered a 2-day decline of -10.5% on April 3rd and 4th. It was remarkably the first ever decline of such magnitude to be triggered by a policy initiative during benign times – as opposed to an existing endogenous fundamental crisis (e.g. Global Financial Crisis) or an unexpected exogenous shock (e.g. Covid).
Two recent developments have opened up a different possibility for the intent and scope of the current trade war: 1) The U.S. has rapidly escalated tariffs against China all the way up to 145% and 2) The U.S. has rapidly deescalated tariffs on all other countries down to 10% for 90 days. There may now be some credence to a scenario where the trade war is focused on curtailing China’s economic, manufacturing, scientific, technological, and military might while actually strengthening all other global alliances through reconciliation, collaboration and some coercion.
Future Evolution of Trade Policy
We have maintained since the elections that the bark of proposed tariffs will eventually be bigger than its final bite. We have been clearly surprised by the much louder bark and greater magnitude of the new reciprocal tariffs and the damage they have inflicted on the markets so far. Nonetheless, we still believe they will eventually be implemented at lower levels than the ones proposed on April 2nd.
Excluding China, we reckon that global tariffs will settle in at the 8-18% level. While an extensive and protracted global trade war remains a possibility, it is not our base case.
It would serve both the U.S. and China well to find an off ramp towards a more stable co-existence as the world’s two leading economies. If that doesn’t happen for any reason, it is conceivable that the U.S. may largely shift its trade dependence on China to other countries. As supply chains re-adjust, we expect the tariff shock to fade and be subsumed by the positive fundamentals of higher productivity growth, fiscal stimulus and deregulation.
Impact on the Economy
The direct impact of higher tariffs is clearly inflationary and recessionary. We also understand that high levels of policy uncertainty can take an indirect economic toll from reduced consumer spending, slower hiring and lower capital expenditures.
Since higher prices are tantamount to a tax on households, we begin by estimating the impact of tariffs on disposable incomes. Figure 3 shows the likely impact of the April 10 package of tariffs on disposable incomes across different deciles of household incomes.
Figure 3: Impact of Tariffs on Disposable Income
Source: The Budget Lab, Yale University
The top 10% of households by income (highest decile #10) in Figure 3 is expected to see the smallest disposable income decline of -2%. On the other hand, the lowest decile of household income may see disposable income fall by almost -5%.
Any reduction in consumer spending from a decline in disposable income will likely be uneven and disproportionate across income categories. A -2% decline in disposable income for the highest income households may have virtually no effect on their spending. Since most of the aggregate consumer spending takes place in high income households, we are optimistic about a relatively muted impact of tariffs on growth.
We expect up to a -1% direct impact of tariffs on GDP growth and up to a -0.5% indirect impact. Therefore, we expect GDP growth to be reduced by -1% to -1.5% in 2025. From a strong starting point of 2.5% real GDP growth, we expect 2025 growth will still be above zero even after our anticipated reduction.
While the odds of a recession or “stagflation” have gone up, neither scenario is our base case. We estimate the odds of a recession to be 30%, which is well below the consensus expectation of 60-70%.
It is evident that inflation will likely be higher in 2025, but we expect it to subside in 2026 as the world adjusts to a new global trade order. On a positive note, we observe that inflation expectations for a 5-year period starting in 2030 have actually declined from 2.3% to 2.1% as of April 11, 2025. We believe current Treasury bond prices are overestimating long-term inflation risks.
Impact on the Markets
U.S. Stocks
The U.S. stock market has seen some wild swings in 2025. Here is the most striking statistic we have found on recent stock market volatility: If you add up all the absolute intra day moves of 3% or more in the 3 trading days between April 7th and April 9th, the S&P moved a monumental 52%!
In the midst of such high volatility and uncertainty, it is difficult to form an outlook for U.S. stocks. We give the task at hand our best analytical effort and intuitive judgment by forecasting both expected S&P 500 earnings and P/E multiples.
We have observed over the years that earnings growth for the S&P 500 tends to be 3-4 times U.S. GDP growth. Based on our view above that GDP growth may be lower by -1% to -1.5%, we expect S&P 500 earnings growth may also be lower by around -4% to -5%. Despite a reduction in the earnings growth rate because of tariffs, earnings will still rise in the next 12 months.
We have a more differentiated view on where trough multiples will likely end up. In prior recessions, they have fallen to as low as 10-13x. In non-recessionary growth scares, they have fallen to 15-16x.
We believe trough multiples will be higher during this growth scare. The current economic and market crisis is policy-induced; up to a certain point, the antidote for the crisis also remains in the hands of policymakers. And as a beacon of hope and optimism, we already have light at the end of the tariff tunnel in the form of fiscal stimulus and deregulation. Therefore, we strongly believe the trough P/E multiple will be higher this time at about 18x.
We also know that trough earnings and trough P/E multiples are never coincident; you cannot see them simultaneously. You typically see trough prices first, then trough multiples and finally trough earnings.
With these building blocks in hand, we estimate that a viable floor for the S&P 500 may exist at the 4,900-5,000 level. While we obviously cannot rule out lower prices, we may just about avoid a bear market by remaining above its closing price threshold of 4,915.
Our base case rules out a bear market, expects the current correction will not be protracted and predicts the S&P 500 will deliver a positive return in 2025.
U.S. Bonds and Dollar
The manic turmoil in the U.S. bond and currency markets during the week of April 7th could well be the topic of an entire article. We confine ourselves to a few key observations here.
Treasury bond prices and the U.S. dollar both fell significantly in the second week of April. This is an extremely rare occurrence, and it triggered profound fears that we were at the beginning of the end of U.S dominance in global bond and currency markets. Critics attributed the selloff to fundamental factors ranging from heightened U.S. fiscal risks caused by an imminent recession to a devastating loss of confidence in U.S. institutions and leadership.
We do not believe those factors were central to the meltdown in U.S. bonds and the dollar. Instead, we believe it originated from a more nuanced and niche event in the bond market. It is widely understood that hedge funds were unwinding a very large and highly leveraged “bond basis” trade in the face of low liquidity and high volatility. This forced and rapid liquidation created significant price dislocations in both Treasury bonds and the U.S. dollar.
We expect U.S. Treasury bonds and the dollar to stabilize in the coming weeks. We believe the 10-year Treasury yield should be closer to 4.1-4.2% in the near term and around 4.5-4.6% in the long run.
Summary
We close out our discussion on a positive and optimistic note.
We know from prior experience that high levels of consumer pessimism, policy uncertainty and fear gauges tend to be contrarian in nature. In other words, stock market returns in the aftermath of high pessimism or fear have historically been high. Figure 4 shows the contrarian nature of consumer sentiment.
Figure 4: Consumer Sentiment is Contrarian
Source: University of Michigan, JPMAM, as of April 2025
The latest reading of consumer sentiment nearly reached its all-time low mark of 50.0 on April 11, 2025. While it accurately reflects coincident pain in the economy, it sadly lags the direction of future stock prices.
The stock market tends to look 9-12 months ahead and generally bottoms out when things are at their worst and about to get better. If history is any indication, stock returns over the next 12 months may be handily positive.
We summarize our key takeaways below.
We believe final tariffs will be lower than those proposed currently; their impact on inflation, GDP growth and corporate profits will also be lower than currently feared.
We assign a low probability to a recession, “stagflation” or a bear market.
We do not anticipate a protracted correction in stock prices; we expect the S&P 500 to deliver a positive return in 2025.
We believe fears of “de-dollarization” and significantly higher Treasury yields are overblown; we expect the bond market and the U.S. dollar to halt their declines in the coming weeks.
Within client portfolios, we are focused on adding to or buying new high quality securities that have sold off disproportionately in this “tariff turmoil”. In these uncertain times, we remain careful, prudent, disciplined, and prepared to act on emerging opportunities.
To learn more about our views on the market or to speak with an advisor about our services, visit our Contact Page.
How high-net-worth families can protect their legacy while supporting their heirs.
Every parent dreams that our children will grow up to be happy, productive, contributing members of society. We envision a path that may include youth sports, music and the arts, faith and culture, and of course, education. Our fervent hope is that our efforts to provide the best possible resources to our children will result in highly functioning adults who love us and share our values of family and community. Still, despite the best parenting efforts, highly functioning adults don’t always happen.
Some children come into the world with special needs. Others experience developmental delays or challenges. Still others make it to teen or young adult years relatively unscathed only to experience mental or emotional difficulties, or perhaps even substance abuse, later in life. It is part of the human experience to go through struggles in life and family; financial status is not a guarantee of better outcomes. What is a family to do then, when planning for a multi-generational wealth transfer amid the specter of children (or grandchildren) who are currently incapable of being good stewards of wealth? How does a family plan around a child with severe emotional limitations or addictions?
Where there are obvious physical and developmental difficulties that will require lifetime care and consideration, estate planners frequently suggest “special needs” trusts designed to provide maximum flexibility to support the beneficiary as their needs change throughout life. Far more challenging, however, are situations where alcohol and drug addiction present ongoing issues.
Of course, a family member with substance abuse issues is disruptive on many levels. For parents or grandparents who are planning to transfer assets to younger generations, addiction presents an extra element of complexity. Even if there are not any current issues among family members, we hear from clients all the time that they want to protect their heirs from harm in the event addiction presents itself in the future. Finally, the addict may not be a direct descendent but the spouse or partner of one of our children.
It is well known that irrevocable trusts can be an effective tool in protecting assets from creditors. They are also effective in protecting beneficiaries from their own worst impulses. Since creditors cannot generally reach the assets of the trust, the beneficiary may not use the assets as collateral for a loan. The trustee usually has the power to make distributions on behalf of the beneficiary so funds may be made available for treatment centers and other rehabilitative services. If a family is concerned about the trustee having the power over distributions, they can name a special distribution trustee for this purpose. This allows for professional management and administration of the assets while placing a trusted family member or family friend in the position of making discretionary distribution
decisions.
An alternative (or additional) solution could be to make gifts of limited interests in family entities. For example, a limited partnership interest carries with it an ownership stake but typically no management interest nor the ability to compel distributions. Buy/sell agreements among the partners can help ensure that the ownership stays in the family.
When thinking about how to make funds available for the benefit of a family member with addiction issues, it is important to understand that treatment options are typically quite expensive and insurance may be limited, particularly for residential treatment facilities. Also, it is not unusual for an addict to cycle in and out of treatment and sobriety, requiring multiple stays. Sometimes families will hire a “sober living companion” to live with the individual, and take them to therapy and treatment appointments and even 12-step meetings, if those are part of the recovery plan. The people who provide this service are frequently in recovery themselves and have practical experience navigating different situations. Keep in mind that there is no certifying or accrediting agency to provide credentials for these companions so careful monitoring is appropriate.
The trustee with the power to make distributions for the benefit of the family member will need to take these factors into account when making decisions. It’s not an easy task and there is a high degree of uncertainty. This should be expected, so leniency and flexibility towards the decisions of the trustee should be built into the trust documents. Perhaps the most important job of the distribution trustee is to try and prevent additional harm by making direct distributions to a beneficiary who is under the influence or who is experiencing a particular episode of struggle.
These types of concerns arise in situations outside of clinical addiction. Sometimes it’s not substance abuse but some other kind of distress such as cults or psychologically abusive spouses and partners. In these scenarios, providing a trustee with the discretion to do what they think is in the best interests of the beneficiary is critical. Drafting a trust instrument with highly restrictive provisions, while tempting, may undermine the trustee’s ability to provide resources and care for the intended beneficiary.
These are not happy things to think about, and they certainly are not our minds as we spend sleepless nights with newborns and toddlers. Yet we all know the reality of the world we live in. Even if our own families are not facing these situations, we know of others who do. Careful planning and consideration of all the factors is an important part of safeguarding a family’s legacy for multiple generations.
At Whittier Trust, our experience in serving as a trustee and dealing firsthand with beneficiaries who are suffering from addiction and other behavioral issues has provided us with tremendous knowledge that informs how we advise clients in the planning stage.
To learn more about how Whittier Trust can make a difference for you and your loved ones, start a conversation with a Whittier Trust advisor today by visiting our contact page.
From Investments to Family Office to Trustee Services and more, we are your single-source solution.
Three key questions to strengthen your investment strategy.
At its core, investing is straightforward: Buy low, sell high. But additional factors such as taxes, along with your risk tolerance and asset mix, can significantly impact your returns. Three key questions can help ensure your investment strategy is positioned to maximize your long-term after-tax returns and legacy goals.
1) Is your wealth concentrated in just one or two businesses, asset classes, or stocks?
At Whittier Trust, new clients frequently come to us having created significant wealth through a single asset—perhaps their own company or stock from an employer. As the oldest multi-family office headquartered on the West Coast, we have seen this position time and time again. But that doesn’t mean that we respond in the same way each time.
“Conventional wisdom tells us that reducing the concentration and diversifying the proceeds is the appropriate way to mitigate an investor’s risk,” says Nick Momyer, Senior Portfolio Manager at Whittier Trust. “But while that may work for one client, it could be all wrong for another.”
At Whittier, we never take a one-size-fits-all approach. “The first step,” Momyer explains, “is to leverage our expertise as fundamental investors to gain a foundational understanding of your assets.”
The Whittier investment team will study the tax characteristics of your holdings and factor in the exposures that inform potential risk and return. “Then, armed with this deep knowledge, we craft personalized portfolios comprised of uncorrelated assets, minimizing the overlap with your existing holdings,” Momyer says.
This complementary method delivers tax efficiency and enhanced downside protection, safeguarding your wealth.
2) Is your investment portfolio tailored specifically for you? Or do you sometimes feel you’re just another account number to your wealth manager?
At Whittier Trust, we believe our clients deserve a more calibrated approach that can significantly improve the compounding power of your portfolio: the use of individual securities for tax-efficient wealth management. Unlike mutual funds, individual securities offer granular control over your portfolio, selecting each holding with detailed knowledge of its track record, integrity, and growth potential.
“Our client-centric approach starts with your objectives,” Momyer says, “which guide our management of a customized portfolio, tailored specifically for your unique needs and desired outcomes. This gives us great advantages for capital gains management and tax-loss harvesting. We can identify assets to complement and diversify a legacy portfolio of concentrated positions, then manage capital gains on a security-by-security basis. This allows us to potentially defer, transfer, or even avoid capital gains taxes through calculated selling and tax-efficient gifting strategies.”
The market will always have ups and downs, and at Whittier, we use these fluctuations to your advantage. By strategically harvesting tax losses on underperforming stocks, the Whittier team offsets taxable gains from other investments, reducing your tax bill and freeing up capital for reinvestment. “Think of it as tax alpha,” Momyer says, “Actively using tax-efficient strategies to boost your after-tax investment returns.”
These stratagems are particularly beneficial for ultra-high-net-worth clients with complex portfolios that include concentrated and highly appreciated assets. Individual securities allow us to navigate these situations effectively, minimizing tax drag and preserving more of your wealth to compound over time.
“One recent example was a client who inherited a concentrated technology holding with a looming tax burden,” Momyer recounts. “We saw an opportunity for a multi-pronged approach. By expertly harvesting tax losses elsewhere in their portfolio and leveraging the client’s donor advised fund, we reduced their tax liability, diversified their portfolio, and honored their charitable wishes.”
3) Are your investments aligned with your long-term financial and legacy goals?
Many investors focus on growing their wealth but may not have a clear roadmap for sustaining it over generations. At Whittier Trust, we integrate portfolio strategy with estate planning, philanthropy, and wealth transfer goals.
“Our approach goes beyond returns. We help clients structure their investments to support their broader objectives, whether that’s leaving a legacy for their family, supporting causes they care about, or simply enjoying financial freedom,” Momyer says. “By considering factors like trust structures, estate planning, and tax implications, we help ensure your portfolio works in concert with your long-term vision.”
At Whittier Trust, we take a holistic approach to wealth management, ensuring that your investments align with your evolving financial needs and legacy aspirations. By combining deep investment expertise with thoughtful estate and tax planning, we help clients not only grow their wealth but also secure their financial legacy with confidence and purpose.
Getting Started
At Whittier Trust, our history and experience become your advantage, directing you to the strongest market performers while making sure taxes don’t erode your wealth. Once our investment team gains a clear understanding of what matters most to you, we craft a customized, efficient portfolio of individual securities, to maximize your after-tax return and meet your objectives. You gain greater control with less effort and stress, knowing you can rely on your fiduciary advisor and family-office investment team to act in your best interests. We invite you to contact Whittier Trust today and discover how we can help you not only achieve your personal and financial goals, but perhaps surpass them.
If you’re ready to explore how Whittier Trust’s tailored investment strategies can work for you, start a conversation with a Whittier Trust advisor today by visiting our contact page.
From Investments to Family Office to Trustee Services and more, we are your single-source solution.
Bringing Decades of Wealth Management Expertise to San Diego’s Ultra-High-Net-Worth Families
Whittier Trust is pleased to announce that Whit Batchelor has been appointed as Executive Vice President, Client Advisor and San Diego Regional Manager, where he will lead the firm’s newest office in San Diego. This appointment underscores Whittier Trust’s dedication to internal leadership development and its commitment to maintaining a client-first culture and relationships spanning generations through experienced, long-tenured professionals.
“Whit’s deep expertise, strong relationships and dedication to client service make him the ideal leader for our official expansion into San Diego,” said David Dahl, President and CEO of Whittier Trust. “Having been with Whittier Trust since 2011, Whit has played a pivotal role in guiding our clients in Southern California. His time as part of the leadership in Newport Beach, coupled with his strong community involvement and extensive work already with clients in San Diego, ensures a seamless transition as we further grow our presence in the region to continue serving our clients locally.”
During his tenure at Whittier Trust’s Newport Beach office, Batchelor spent more than a decade expertly navigating the complex financial landscapes of high-net-worth individuals and families, crafting personalized, multi-generational strategies that align with each family's distinct goals and values. His expertise spans wealth and investment management, estate planning, tax optimization, balance sheet management and comprehensive financial advisory services, essential for a premier multi-family office. Known for his dedication and accessibility, Batchelor cultivated lasting relationships with clients and their families, ensuring continuity and a bespoke approach to financial services. His deep familiarity with the San Diego market, forged through years of building relationships and advising families in the area, further positions him uniquely for this role.
In addition to his expertise in wealth and investment management, estate planning and tax optimization, Batchelor has been an active participant in community initiatives throughout Southern California. While in Newport Beach, he was deeply engaged in service projects and philanthropic efforts, including his tenure on the board of Make-A-Wish Orange County & the Inland Empire, where he served as board chair. He brings this same spirit of community involvement and service to San Diego, where he envisions the office playing an integral role in both client service and regional philanthropy.
Whit Batchelor holds an undergraduate degree from the University of Vermont and an MBA with a finance concentration from California Lutheran University. He is a Certified Trust and Financial Advisor (CTFA) and a Certified Financial Planner (CFP). Outside of work, he enjoys spending time with his wife and three children, pursuing outdoor activities such as sailing, skiing and mountain biking.
As Whittier Trust officially opens this new office in San Diego, the wealth management firm remains committed to its tradition of thoughtful leadership selection, ensuring that every client continues to receive the personalized and sophisticated wealth management services that define the Whittier Trust experience.
For more information about Whittier Trust, start a conversation with an advisor today by visiting ourcontact page.
From Investments to Family Office to Trustee Services and more, we are your single-source solution.
Sandip engaged in a healthy debate with top industry professionals and economists about the recent turmoil in the markets as a growth scare threatens to devolve into a recession or stagflation.
Risk assets have sold off in the midst of high policy uncertainty and fiscal austerity from government job cuts. In the span of just a few weeks, concerns about the U.S. economy have shifted from being overheated to now plunging into a recession.
Sandip believes these fears are overblown and unwarranted. The bark of tariffs will likely be bigger than the bite. Renewed fiscal stimulus, deregulation and productivity growth will eventually push growth higher in the coming years.
Watch now to hear Sandip’s more balanced, strategic and constructive outlook in a discussion with Phil Mackintosh, Chief Economist at Nasdaq; Brian Joyce, Managing Director on the Nasdaq Market Intelligence Desk; Steven Wieting, Chief Economist & Chief Investment Strategist at Citi Wealth; and host of Nasdaq Trade Talks, Jill Malandrino.
To learn more about our views on the market or to speak with an advisor about our services, visit our Contact Page.
Ultra-high-net-worth individuals and their families are facing some big challenges, and many are seeking the counsel of multi-family offices to help them navigate uncharted waters.
is one way that the Whittier Trust team finds it can unite families.
Tax is a major consideration for Whittier’s team and is often complex given the diverse assets of UHNW families.
