Post Type: Insights

Apr 18th

Market Insights – Second Quarter 2025

A Growth Scare ... And Likely No Worse

The momentum from two years of remarkable economic resilience and strong market returns came to an abrupt halt in April 2025. The catalyst for market turmoil this time around was an unexpected turn in the administration’s global trade policy.

April 2, 2025 was touted as Liberation Day in anticipation of the long-awaited details on President Trump’s reciprocal tariff policy. The President used his executive authority to address the lack of reciprocity in U.S. bilateral trade relationships and to “level the playing field for American workers and manufacturers, re-shore American jobs, expand our domestic manufacturing base, and ensure our defense-industrial base is not dependent on foreign adversaries—all leading to stronger economic and national security” (Office of the United States Trade Representative).

However, the scope and magnitude of the proposed tariffs exceeded all expectations. In the initial Liberation Day proposal, all countries were subject to a minimum tariff rate of 10%. Countries with whom the U.S. has a large trade deficit were subject to even higher reciprocal tariffs.

The immediate reaction to the announcement was an immense fear of a global recession and a spike in inflation. Consistent with these fears, stocks sold off dramatically after the initial announcement. A temporary pause in reciprocal tariffs for all countries except China then halted the stock market decline. However, the U.S. dollar and bond market both fell sharply and unexpectedly during the week of April 7, 2025 in contrast to their conventional safe haven status.

We address concerns about higher inflation, higher rates, a recession, a bear market, and a weaker U.S. dollar in this article.

We are aware that this is a highly charged and contentious topic. We will, therefore, refrain from any ideological, philosophical, political, or moral judgment on the subject. We also realize that public disclosures on the topic may lack full transparency for reasons of national security. In a rapidly changing world, our views here have been penned in mid-April 2025.

How Did We Get Here?

The original impetus for higher tariffs is likely rooted in the fact that almost all of our trading partners charge a higher tariff on our exports to them than we do on their exports to us. For example, 2023 World Trade Organization data estimates that China, India and the UK have tariff rates of around 17%, 12% and 5% respectively on U.S. exports to them. In contrast, our corresponding tariffs on their exports to us are around 10%, 2% and 2% respectively. This mismatch in tariffs is probably further exacerbated by other unfair trade practices such as non-tariff barriers and currency manipulation.

The administration’s policy on tariffs may have been further emboldened by the perceived leverage of the U.S. over many of its trading partners. Figure 1 shows how this leverage is achieved. It compares the importance of a country’s imports to us (x-axis) versus the importance of U.S. exports to its own global trade (y-axis).

Figure 1: Leverage in Trade Relationships

Source: Wolfe Research, World Integrated Trade Solution as of 2022

This chart helps us understand where the U.S. has more leverage with its trading partners. We explain Figure 1 with an example. Take Vietnam for instance. All imports to the U.S. from Vietnam account for only around 4% of total U.S. imports. However, those same Vietnam exports to the U.S. account for almost 32% of its total exports. In light of this imbalance, Vietnam is far more likely to negotiate than retaliate.

In Figure 1, it is clear that Mexico, Canada and several Emerging Markets countries in Asia and South America are most dependent on trade with the U.S., while countries in the EU have more equal trading relationships. China has the most trading leverage against the U.S.; its retaliation has, therefore, been fast and furious.

These salient data points had already been priced into expectations of a higher tariff rate of around 8% prior to Liberation Day. Nonetheless, markets were caught off guard on April 2nd at two levels—by the methodology of tariff calculations and the resulting magnitude of reciprocal tariffs.

Contrary to expectations of a more targeted approach, the reciprocal tariffs were derived from a rudimentary framework that aimed to reduce bilateral trade deficits. Each country’s tariff rate was determined by dividing the U.S. trade deficit with that country by total imports from that country. This number was then cut in half to create the new U.S. “discounted” reciprocal tariff. Here are some of the initial proposed reciprocal tariffs from Liberation Day: China 34%, EU 20%, Japan 24%, India 26%, Vietnam 46%, Switzerland 31% and UK 10%.

These initial reciprocal tariffs have since been suspended for 90 days for all countries except China from April 10th. In sharp contrast, tariffs with China have escalated exponentially through a sequence of retaliations; they now stand at 145% on Chinese exports to the U.S. and 125% on U.S. exports to China. U.S. tariffs on all other countries temporarily stand at the minimum baseline of 10%.

We summarize the revised April 10th levels of tariffs in Figure 2 before turning to our inferences and forecasts.

Figure 2: Average Effective Tariff Rate as of April 10, 2025

Source: The Budget Lab, Yale University

The average global tariff rate for the U.S. is now projected to go up more than 10-fold from 2.4% to approximately 27%. We label this average tariff rate as a “pre substitution” rate since it assumes that all flows of global trade remain constant and intact at 2024 levels. However, higher tariffs on Chinese goods may well trigger substitution to other cheaper imports. The resulting “post substitution” average tariff rate is lower and estimated to be 19%.

Thoughts on Current Trade Policy

We appreciate the desire to increase the U.S. manufacturing base and reduce foreign dependencies in industries critical to national security. We also applaud the pursuit of fairer terms for global trade.

Nonetheless, we initially believed that it was sub-optimal to achieve these goals with an aggressive trade policy alone. A number of tenets in the opening approach seemed misaligned with our global leadership role, created by our own dominant economy and strong alliances with others.

The costs of high fixed trade barriers are well-known, e.g. higher prices, slower growth, less competition, less innovation, and lower standard of living. The expansive and punitive trade war in its initial formulation on April 2nd risked a U.S. recession and an alienation of our allies.

The singular focus on reducing bilateral trade deficits through high imputed tariffs also felt misguided. A large portion of the U.S. trade deficit is driven by principles of comparative advantage where cost of production is often lower overseas and by cultural differences in our lower propensity to save and greater desire to consume. Besides, the large foreign trade surpluses eventually make their way back into U.S. dollar-denominated assets giving our stocks, bonds and currency hegemonic power.

These thoughts may also have preyed on investors’ minds as they indiscriminately sold risk assets. The S&P 500 suffered a 2-day decline of -10.5% on April 3rd and 4th. It was remarkably the first ever decline of such magnitude to be triggered by a policy initiative during benign times – as opposed to an existing endogenous fundamental crisis (e.g. Global Financial Crisis) or an unexpected exogenous shock (e.g. Covid).

Two recent developments have opened up a different possibility for the intent and scope of the current trade war: 1) The U.S. has rapidly escalated tariffs against China all the way up to 145% and 2) The U.S. has rapidly deescalated tariffs on all other countries down to 10% for 90 days. There may now be some credence to a scenario where the trade war is focused on curtailing China’s economic, manufacturing, scientific, technological, and military might while actually strengthening all other global alliances through reconciliation, collaboration and some coercion.

Future Evolution of Trade Policy

We have maintained since the elections that the bark of proposed tariffs will eventually be bigger than its final bite. We have been clearly surprised by the much louder bark and greater magnitude of the new reciprocal tariffs and the damage they have inflicted on the markets so far. Nonetheless, we still believe they will eventually be implemented at lower levels than the ones proposed on April 2nd.

Excluding China, we reckon that global tariffs will settle in at the 8-18% level. While an extensive and protracted global trade war remains a possibility, it is not our base case.

It would serve both the U.S. and China well to find an off ramp towards a more stable co-existence as the world’s two leading economies. If that doesn’t happen for any reason, it is conceivable that the U.S. may largely shift its trade dependence on China to other countries. As supply chains re-adjust, we expect the tariff shock to fade and be subsumed by the positive fundamentals of higher productivity growth, fiscal stimulus and deregulation.

Impact on the Economy

The direct impact of higher tariffs is clearly inflationary and recessionary. We also understand that high levels of policy uncertainty can take an indirect economic toll from reduced consumer spending, slower hiring and lower capital expenditures.

Since higher prices are tantamount to a tax on households, we begin by estimating the impact of tariffs on disposable incomes. Figure 3 shows the likely impact of the April 10 package of tariffs on disposable incomes across different deciles of household incomes.

Figure 3: Impact of Tariffs on Disposable Income

Source: The Budget Lab, Yale University

The top 10% of households by income (highest decile #10) in Figure 3 is expected to see the smallest disposable income decline of -2%. On the other hand, the lowest decile of household income may see disposable income fall by almost -5%.

Any reduction in consumer spending from a decline in disposable income will likely be uneven and disproportionate across income categories. A -2% decline in disposable income for the highest income households may have virtually no effect on their spending. Since most of the aggregate consumer spending takes place in high income households, we are optimistic about a relatively muted impact of tariffs on growth.

We expect up to a -1% direct impact of tariffs on GDP growth and up to a -0.5% indirect impact. Therefore, we expect GDP growth to be reduced by -1% to -1.5% in 2025. From a strong starting point of 2.5% real GDP growth, we expect 2025 growth will still be above zero even after our anticipated reduction.

While the odds of a recession or “stagflation” have gone up, neither scenario is our base case. We estimate the odds of a recession to be 30%, which is well below the consensus expectation of 60-70%.

It is evident that inflation will likely be higher in 2025, but we expect it to subside in 2026 as the world adjusts to a new global trade order. On a positive note, we observe that inflation expectations for a 5-year period starting in 2030 have actually declined from 2.3% to 2.1% as of April 11, 2025. We believe current Treasury bond prices are overestimating long-term inflation risks.

Impact on the Markets

U.S. Stocks

The U.S. stock market has seen some wild swings in 2025. Here is the most striking statistic we have found on recent stock market volatility: If you add up all the absolute intra day moves of 3% or more in the 3 trading days between April 7th and April 9th, the S&P moved a monumental 52%!

In the midst of such high volatility and uncertainty, it is difficult to form an outlook for U.S. stocks. We give the task at hand our best analytical effort and intuitive judgment by forecasting both expected S&P 500 earnings and P/E multiples.

We have observed over the years that earnings growth for the S&P 500 tends to be 3-4 times U.S. GDP growth. Based on our view above that GDP growth may be lower by -1% to -1.5%, we expect S&P 500 earnings growth may also be lower by around -4% to -5%. Despite a reduction in the earnings growth rate because of tariffs, earnings will still rise in the next 12 months.

We have a more differentiated view on where trough multiples will likely end up. In prior recessions, they have fallen to as low as 10-13x. In non-recessionary growth scares, they have fallen to 15-16x.

We believe trough multiples will be higher during this growth scare. The current economic and market crisis is policy-induced; up to a certain point, the antidote for the crisis also remains in the hands of policymakers. And as a beacon of hope and optimism, we already have light at the end of the tariff tunnel in the form of fiscal stimulus and deregulation. Therefore, we strongly believe the trough P/E multiple will be higher this time at about 18x.

We also know that trough earnings and trough P/E multiples are never coincident; you cannot see them simultaneously. You typically see trough prices first, then trough multiples and finally trough earnings.

With these building blocks in hand, we estimate that a viable floor for the S&P 500 may exist at the 4,900-5,000 level. While we obviously cannot rule out lower prices, we may just about avoid a bear market by remaining above its closing price threshold of 4,915.

Our base case rules out a bear market, expects the current correction will not be protracted and predicts the S&P 500 will deliver a positive return in 2025.

U.S. Bonds and Dollar

The manic turmoil in the U.S. bond and currency markets during the week of April 7th could well be the topic of an entire article. We confine ourselves to a few key observations here.

Treasury bond prices and the U.S. dollar both fell significantly in the second week of April. This is an extremely rare occurrence, and it triggered profound fears that we were at the beginning of the end of U.S dominance in global bond and currency markets. Critics attributed the selloff to fundamental factors ranging from heightened U.S. fiscal risks caused by an imminent recession to a devastating loss of confidence in U.S. institutions and leadership.

We do not believe those factors were central to the meltdown in U.S. bonds and the dollar. Instead, we believe it originated from a more nuanced and niche event in the bond market. It is widely understood that hedge funds were unwinding a very large and highly leveraged “bond basis” trade in the face of low liquidity and high volatility. This forced and rapid liquidation created significant price dislocations in both Treasury bonds and the U.S. dollar.

We expect U.S. Treasury bonds and the dollar to stabilize in the coming weeks. We believe the 10-year Treasury yield should be closer to 4.1-4.2% in the near term and around 4.5-4.6% in the long run.

Summary

We close out our discussion on a positive and optimistic note.

We know from prior experience that high levels of consumer pessimism, policy uncertainty and fear gauges tend to be contrarian in nature. In other words, stock market returns in the aftermath of high pessimism or fear have historically been high. Figure 4 shows the contrarian nature of consumer sentiment.

Figure 4: Consumer Sentiment is Contrarian

Source: University of Michigan, JPMAM, as of April 2025

The latest reading of consumer sentiment nearly reached its all-time low mark of 50.0 on April 11, 2025. While it accurately reflects coincident pain in the economy, it sadly lags the direction of future stock prices.

The stock market tends to look 9-12 months ahead and generally bottoms out when things are at their worst and about to get better. If history is any indication, stock returns over the next 12 months may be handily positive.

We summarize our key takeaways below.

  • We believe final tariffs will be lower than those proposed currently; their impact on inflation, GDP growth and corporate profits will also be lower than currently feared.
  • We assign a low probability to a recession, “stagflation” or a bear market.
  • We do not anticipate a protracted correction in stock prices; we expect the S&P 500 to deliver a positive return in 2025.
  • We believe fears of “de-dollarization” and significantly higher Treasury yields are overblown; we expect the bond market and the U.S. dollar to halt their declines in the coming weeks.

Within client portfolios, we are focused on adding to or buying new high quality securities that have sold off disproportionately in this “tariff turmoil”. In these uncertain times, we remain careful, prudent, disciplined, and prepared to act on emerging opportunities.

To learn more about our views on the market or to speak with an advisor about our services, visit our Contact Page.

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We believe final tariffs will be lower than those proposed currently; their impact on growth and inflation will be lower than feared.

 

We assign a low probability to a recession, “stagflation” or a bear market.

 

We expect the S&P 500 to deliver a positive return in 2025.

 

We believe fears of “de-dollarization” and significantly higher Treasury yields are overblown.

From Investments to Family Office to Trustee Services and more, we are your single-source solution.

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Apr 17th

Balancing Support and Accountability

How high-net-worth families can protect their legacy while supporting their heirs.

Every parent dreams that our children will grow up to be happy, productive, contributing members of society. We envision a path that may include youth sports, music and the arts, faith and culture, and of course, education. Our fervent hope is that our efforts to provide the best possible resources to our children will result in highly functioning adults who love us and share our values of family and community. Still, despite the best parenting efforts, highly functioning adults don’t always happen.

Some children come into the world with special needs. Others experience developmental delays or challenges. Still others make it to teen or young adult years relatively unscathed only to experience mental or emotional difficulties, or perhaps even substance abuse, later in life. It is part of the human experience to go through struggles in life and family; financial status is not a guarantee of better outcomes. What is a family to do then, when planning for a multi-generational wealth transfer amid the specter of children (or grandchildren) who are currently incapable of being good stewards of wealth? How does a family plan around a child with severe emotional limitations or addictions?

Where there are obvious physical and developmental difficulties that will require lifetime care and consideration, estate planners frequently suggest “special needs” trusts designed to provide maximum flexibility to support the beneficiary as their needs change throughout life. Far more challenging, however, are situations where alcohol and drug addiction present ongoing issues.

Of course, a family member with substance abuse issues is disruptive on many levels. For parents or grandparents who are planning to transfer assets to younger generations, addiction presents an extra element of complexity. Even if there are not any current issues among family members, we hear from clients all the time that they want to protect their heirs from harm in the event addiction presents itself in the future. Finally, the addict may not be a direct descendent but the spouse or partner of one of our children.

It is well known that irrevocable trusts can be an effective tool in protecting assets from creditors. They are also effective in protecting beneficiaries from their own worst impulses. Since creditors cannot generally reach the assets of the trust, the beneficiary may not use the assets as collateral for a loan. The trustee usually has the power to make distributions on behalf of the beneficiary so funds may be made available for treatment centers and other rehabilitative services. If a family is concerned about the trustee having the power over distributions, they can name a special distribution trustee for this purpose. This allows for professional management and administration of the assets while placing a trusted family member or family friend in the position of making discretionary distribution
decisions.

An alternative (or additional) solution could be to make gifts of limited interests in family entities. For example, a limited partnership interest carries with it an ownership stake but typically no management interest nor the ability to compel distributions. Buy/sell agreements among the partners can help ensure that the ownership stays in the family.

When thinking about how to make funds available for the benefit of a family member with addiction issues, it is important to understand that treatment options are typically quite expensive and insurance may be limited, particularly for residential treatment facilities. Also, it is not unusual for an addict to cycle in and out of treatment and sobriety, requiring multiple stays. Sometimes families will hire a “sober living companion” to live with the individual, and take them to therapy and treatment appointments and even 12-step meetings, if those are part of the recovery plan. The people who provide this service are frequently in recovery themselves and have practical experience navigating different situations. Keep in mind that there is no certifying or accrediting agency to provide credentials for these companions so careful monitoring is appropriate.

The trustee with the power to make distributions for the benefit of the family member will need to take these factors into account when making decisions. It’s not an easy task and there is a high degree of uncertainty. This should be expected, so leniency and flexibility towards the decisions of the trustee should be built into the trust documents. Perhaps the most important job of the distribution trustee is to try and prevent additional harm by making direct distributions to a beneficiary who is under the influence or who is experiencing a particular episode of struggle.

These types of concerns arise in situations outside of clinical addiction. Sometimes it’s not substance abuse but some other kind of distress such as cults or psychologically abusive spouses and partners. In these scenarios, providing a trustee with the discretion to do what they think is in the best interests of the beneficiary is critical. Drafting a trust instrument with highly restrictive provisions, while tempting, may undermine the trustee’s ability to provide resources and care for the intended beneficiary.

These are not happy things to think about, and they certainly are not our minds as we spend sleepless nights with newborns and toddlers. Yet we all know the reality of the world we live in. Even if our own families are not facing these situations, we know of others who do. Careful planning and consideration of all the factors is an important part of safeguarding a family’s legacy for multiple generations.

At Whittier Trust, our experience in serving as a trustee and dealing firsthand with beneficiaries who are suffering from addiction and other behavioral issues has provided us with tremendous knowledge that informs how we advise clients in the planning stage. 

To learn more about how Whittier Trust can make a difference for you and your loved ones, start a conversation with a Whittier Trust advisor today by visiting our contact page.

 

From Investments to Family Office to Trustee Services and more, we are your single-source solution.

Contact Us
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Apr 11th

Partners In Portfolio Strategy

Three key questions to strengthen your investment strategy.

At its core, investing is straightforward: Buy low, sell high. But additional factors such as taxes, along with your risk tolerance and asset mix, can significantly impact your returns. Three key questions can help ensure your investment strategy is positioned to maximize your long-term after-tax returns and legacy goals.

1) Is your wealth concentrated in just one or two businesses, asset classes, or stocks? 

At Whittier Trust, new clients frequently come to us having created significant wealth through a single asset—perhaps their own company or stock from an employer. As the oldest multi-family office headquartered on the West Coast, we have seen this position time and time again. But that doesn’t mean that we respond in the same way each time.

“Conventional wisdom tells us that reducing the concentration and diversifying the proceeds is the appropriate way to mitigate an investor’s risk,” says Nick Momyer, Senior Portfolio Manager at Whittier Trust. “But while that may work for one client, it could be all wrong for another.”

At Whittier, we never take a one-size-fits-all approach. “The first step,” Momyer explains, “is to leverage our expertise as fundamental investors to gain a foundational understanding of your assets.”  

The Whittier investment team will study the tax characteristics of your holdings and factor in the exposures that inform potential risk and return. “Then, armed with this deep knowledge, we craft personalized portfolios comprised of uncorrelated assets, minimizing the overlap with your existing holdings,” Momyer says. 

This complementary method delivers tax efficiency and enhanced downside protection, safeguarding your wealth. 

2) Is your investment portfolio tailored specifically for you? Or do you sometimes feel you’re just another account number to your wealth manager? 

At Whittier Trust, we believe our clients deserve a more calibrated approach that can significantly improve the compounding power of your portfolio: the use of individual securities for tax-efficient wealth management. Unlike mutual funds, individual securities offer granular control over your portfolio, selecting each holding with detailed knowledge of its track record, integrity, and growth potential. 

“Our client-centric approach starts with your objectives,” Momyer says, “which guide our management of a customized portfolio, tailored specifically for your unique needs and desired outcomes. This gives us great advantages for capital gains management and tax-loss harvesting. We can identify assets to complement and diversify a legacy portfolio of concentrated positions, then manage capital gains on a security-by-security basis. This allows us to potentially defer, transfer, or even avoid capital gains taxes through calculated selling and tax-efficient gifting strategies.”

The market will always have ups and downs, and at Whittier, we use these fluctuations to your advantage. By strategically harvesting tax losses on underperforming stocks, the Whittier team offsets taxable gains from other investments, reducing your tax bill and freeing up capital for reinvestment. “Think of it as tax alpha,” Momyer says, “Actively using tax-efficient strategies to boost your after-tax investment returns.”

These stratagems are particularly beneficial for ultra-high-net-worth clients with complex portfolios that include concentrated and highly appreciated assets. Individual securities allow us to navigate these situations effectively, minimizing tax drag and preserving more of your wealth to compound over time.

“One recent example was a client who inherited a concentrated technology holding with a looming tax burden,” Momyer recounts. “We saw an opportunity for a multi-pronged approach. By expertly harvesting tax losses elsewhere in their portfolio and leveraging the client’s donor advised fund, we reduced their tax liability, diversified their portfolio, and honored their charitable wishes.”

3) Are your investments aligned with your long-term financial and legacy goals?

Many investors focus on growing their wealth but may not have a clear roadmap for sustaining it over generations. At Whittier Trust, we integrate portfolio strategy with estate planning, philanthropy, and wealth transfer goals.

“Our approach goes beyond returns. We help clients structure their investments to support their broader objectives, whether that’s leaving a legacy for their family, supporting causes they care about, or simply enjoying financial freedom,” Momyer says. “By considering factors like trust structures, estate planning, and tax implications, we help ensure your portfolio works in concert with your long-term vision.”

At Whittier Trust, we take a holistic approach to wealth management, ensuring that your investments align with your evolving financial needs and legacy aspirations. By combining deep investment expertise with thoughtful estate and tax planning, we help clients not only grow their wealth but also secure their financial legacy with confidence and purpose.

Getting Started

At Whittier Trust, our history and experience become your advantage, directing you to the strongest market performers while making sure taxes don’t erode your wealth. Once our investment team gains a clear understanding of what matters most to you, we craft a customized, efficient portfolio of individual securities, to maximize your after-tax return and meet your objectives. You gain greater control with less effort and stress, knowing you can rely on your fiduciary advisor and family-office investment team to act in your best interests. We invite you to contact Whittier Trust today and discover how we can help you not only achieve your personal and financial goals, but perhaps surpass them.

If you’re ready to explore how Whittier Trust’s tailored investment strategies can work for you, start a conversation with a Whittier Trust advisor today by visiting our contact page.

 

From Investments to Family Office to Trustee Services and more, we are your single-source solution.

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Mar 26th

Whittier Trust CIO, Sandip Bhagat, Featured on NASDAQ TradeTalks Panel 

Sandip engaged in a healthy debate with top industry professionals and economists about the recent turmoil in the markets as a growth scare threatens to devolve into a recession or stagflation.

Risk assets have sold off in the midst of high policy uncertainty and fiscal austerity from government job cuts. In the span of just a few weeks, concerns about the U.S. economy have shifted from being overheated to now plunging into a recession.

Sandip believes these fears are overblown and unwarranted. The bark of tariffs will likely be bigger than the bite. Renewed fiscal stimulus, deregulation and productivity growth will eventually push growth higher in the coming years.

Watch now to hear Sandip’s more balanced, strategic and constructive outlook in a discussion with Phil Mackintosh, Chief Economist at Nasdaq; Brian Joyce, Managing Director on the Nasdaq Market Intelligence Desk; Steven Wieting, Chief Economist & Chief Investment Strategist at Citi Wealth; and host of Nasdaq Trade Talks, Jill Malandrino.

To learn more about our views on the market or to speak with an advisor about our services, visit our Contact Page.

Mar 20th

The Advantages of Individual Securities Over Mutual Funds

Individual securities offer powerful advantages for ultra-high-net-worth investors.

If you’ve been investing for a while, at some point you were probably told that mutual funds were not only an easy answer, but also a wise one, promising a strong return with minimal effort and monitoring. This advice is not wrong, but it doesn’t apply to everyone. 

After mutual funds rose to popularity in the bull market of the 1990s, they became a staple of individual retirement accounts (IRAs), which were rapidly replacing traditional pensions. IRAs and other mass-market purposes are exactly what mutual funds are designed for, and they typically perform well toward those goals. But they don’t make sense for investors with the resources to gauge the market on their own. 

“One of the things that differentiates Whittier Trust is our belief that clients should own individual positions versus mutual or co-mingled funds,” says David Ronco, Senior Portfolio Manager at Whittier. “Buying individual securities for our clients allows us to save them money with respect to fees and taxes while creating a customized, transparent investment solution.” 

“As a portfolio manager, I have an in-depth understanding of all major asset classes including equities, fixed income, real estate, and alternatives,” Ronco continues. “For each client’s portfolio, our team hand-picks the best individual investments to meet their goals.” 

Here, Ronco explains four key benefits of owning individual securities.

Customization

Mutual funds are designed to reach a broad cross-section of market participants. “The only customization they offer is a choice between general goals such as growth or income,” Ronco explains. “They don’t take into account your philosophy, your risk tolerance, or the many other factors that can make you a standout investor. They are truly the lowest common denominator of investing.”

Overall Cost

Many mutual funds have high expense ratios, layered on top of wealth management fees. “We call that fee layering, and it’s not an issue with individual securities, which have no embedded fees,” Ronco says. “So right off the bat, moving to individual securities significantly increases the compounding return potential of a client’s portfolio.” 

Tax Efficiency

“Individual securities are also more tax efficient than mutual funds by far,” says Ronco. “Mutual funds are essentially not concerned with tax efficiency. They generate capital gains and losses as they trade securities throughout the year, and they have to distribute those net capital gains evenly to all shareholders, even those investors that didn’t engage in any buying or selling.”

Whittier clients benefit from direct ownership of their holdings, which allows precise control over capital gains enabling flexible tax loss harvesting and tax-free compounding. Our portfolio managers strategically leverage these advantages through constant analysis of client positions, ensuring proactive, year-round tax optimization, not just a reactive approach at tax time.

Transparency

Individual securities offer Whittier clients ultimate transparency so their stakes in specific industries and companies are completely clear. “We can provide detailed, real-time information about every security our clients hold,” explains Ronco. “Mutual funds, on the other hand, are a bit of a black box, often reporting 60 to 100 underlying positions under a single, vague name or symbol.”

Growing Your Portfolio

At Whittier, no two client portfolios are the same, and the individual securities selected by portfolio managers and the Whittier investment team reflect the understanding we have of each client’s assets and goals, built through long-term relationships.

“We help families preserve and grow the wealth that they have worked hard to create,” Ronco says. “I consider it a privilege to share the expertise of our Whittier team and my own in-depth understanding of all asset classes—including equities, fixed income, real estate, and alternatives—to help clients build wealth.”

If you’re ready to explore how Whittier Trust’s tailored investment strategies can work for you, start a conversation with a Whittier Trust advisor today by visiting our contact page.

 

From Investments to Family Office to Trustee Services and more, we are your single-source solution.

Contact Us
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Mar 7th

Family Philanthropy Benefits Givers in Surprising Ways — We’ve Seen it Happen

Last year’s National Nonprofit Day was a welcome reminder of the significant impact philanthropic activities can have on communities and the world. But at Whittier Trust we have also witnessed how helping families engage with philanthropy, whether by establishing a nonprofit, a family foundation or forming a philanthropic strategy, can significantly transform family dynamics and relationships, forging and strengthening bonds by a shared desire to do good.

One family we worked with illustrated the power of incorporating philanthropy into a wealth portfolio. To facilitate the creation of a family foundation, our team organized a retreat for the father, mother and their three adult children. The two daughters were enthusiastic about participating but their brother, who was estranged from the family, was less so and only reluctantly agreed to attend. During the retreat, the father became emotional as shared the childhood experiences that inspired him to support vocational training for low-income kids and motivated him to establish the foundation. 

His heartfelt words came as a surprise to the children, who had never seen their father so passionate. It prompted them to open up about their interests and passions. The father’s moment of vulnerability sparked a deeper understanding and connection among the family members, leading to their active engagement in the foundation — including the once-estranged son. Through philanthropy, this family was able to gain a meaningful appreciation for each other and the experiences that shaped them.

While a simple story from a father about why he gives back can inspire family involvement and reconnection, there are benefits derived from family philanthropy.

Values and Succession

Discussions about family members' backgrounds and beliefs help everyone embrace family history and carry forward important values and civic responsibility. Through philanthropic activities, parents can also help ensure that family wealth does not undermine their children's drive for success. 

Life Skills

Deciding on a charitable mission, selecting grantees, creating a decision-making process and determining and evaluating desired impact can be challenging. Making these decisions as a family allows members to research causes they care about, learn to communicate respectfully, make persuasive arguments, appreciate different perspectives and find compromises. Representing your family well in the community ensures every interaction leaves a positive impression on people, grantees, organizations and other philanthropists.

Financial Literacy

By setting a foundation's strategy and mission, family members gain knowledge about investments, financial planning, budgeting, market fluctuations, tax considerations and other financial management practices — including how to understand and evaluate the financial health of organizations they might support. 

Resolving Ambivalence

Family members, especially those who didn't earn the wealth themselves, often have mixed feelings about the family money. Collaborating on how to use the wealth for good can help alleviate these tensions, uniting family members around positive impact.

Togetherness

With wealthy families often dispersed across the country or the globe, philanthropy serves as a unifying force around a common purpose. It encourages family members to come together, visit grantees, observe their work in the community and discuss their experiences.

When families select a cause based on their own experiences, interests and life journeys — as opposed to external influences — they maximize the odds of reaping the benefits discussed above. A family office can help identify each member's passions and develop a strategy that unifies the philanthropic focus and doesn’t seed resentment or frustration. 

As we celebrate National Nonprofit Day, consider how family philanthropy can strengthen bonds, impart valuable life skills and create a lasting legacy. By thoughtfully establishing and managing a vehicle for family giving, families can unite around shared values and make a meaningful impact on the world for generations to come.

Written by Pegine Grayson, JD, CAP®, Senior Vice President and Director of Philanthropic Services as well as Ashley Fontanetta, Senior Vice President and Client Advisor, both in Whittier Trust's Pasadena Office.

Featured in Financial Planning Magazine. To learn more about how Whittier Trust can support you, your family and your legacy through our philanthropic services, start a conversation with a Whittier Trust advisor today by visiting our contact page.

From Investments to Family Office to Trustee Services and more, we are your single-source solution.

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Feb 28th

Thinking of Selling Your Business? Sell Smart

Smart entrepreneurs look far beyond financials.

“The difference between great people and everyone else is that great people create their lives actively, while everyone else is created by their lives, passively waiting to see where life takes them next,” Michael E. Gerber wrote in his book, The E Myth. The sentiment applies to entrepreneurs approaching the impending sale of the business they built: They must create the most favorable conditions to achieve their desired outcome, which can go far beyond optimizing the balance sheet and achieving a high valuation multiple.

Business owners are used to looking at all sides of a transaction, and that skill comes in handy with the ultimate transaction–the sale of the business itself. It is vital to consider not only the financial and tax consequences of such a sale, but also the impact on one’s family situation, next generation planning, other business holdings, and charitable giving pursuits. When all is said and done, you want to know that you maximized opportunities, minimized regrets, and positioned yourself for a rewarding next chapter. This doesn’t happen without thoughtful and timely planning.

Keep these three things in mind so that you can sell smart when you sell your business:

1. Enlist help.

Oftentimes, that’s where a certified exit planning advisor can come in to help strategize and execute the steps leading up to, and following, a sale. At Whittier Trust, the oldest multifamily office headquartered on the West Coast, we take a holistic approach that prioritizes investments, family relationships, and tax, estate, and philanthropic planning. By spending time getting to know clients’ needs and goals, we’re able to help avoid obstacles and optimize results. Often, by taking this approach and thinking ahead, we seek to help them achieve the best results possible. We focus on surrounding the entrepreneur with Whittier and non-Whittier professionals who will collaborate to educate, strategize, and help the business owner exercise more control over personal, financial, and business outcomes that might otherwise be left to chance.

2. Look beyond the bottom line.

One way our Whittier Trust team helps entrepreneurial business owners navigate a potential sale is by doing a deep-dive to understand the impact the sale of the business may have on your business goals and your personal life. In addition to fact-finding about the business itself and how it’s structured, the team works to understand the motivations behind why you built the business, why you’re prepared to sell, and how to best achieve your goals for the future. Here are some questions to help get you started:

  • What prompted you to start the business in the first place?
  • Why are you thinking about leaving the business?
  • Do you have a timeline in mind for your exit?
  • What’s your vision of the ideal transition?
  • What personal or business objectives would you like to see accomplished in the transition?
  • How do you expect exiting the company to impact your life?
  • Do you want to stay involved in the business after the sale?
  • Do you expect any family members to remain active in the business?
  • Are you concerned about any family issues?
  • How do you expect your key employees to be impacted?
  • Are you concerned about any employee issues?
  • Do you anticipate any partner or shareholder issues?
  • How important is preserving the legacy of the business?
  • Have you identified a successor(s)?
  • Have you taken steps to formalize a transfer arrangement?
  • What are you most concerned about relative to the transition?
  • Have you had the business appraised in the last 12 months?
  • Have you worked with anyone to evaluate the health of the business?
  • How will exiting the business impact your personal financial situation?
  • Does anyone else depend on the business for income or financial support?
  • Do you currently have a wealth management consultant?
  • Do you have an estate plan?
  • Do you have a plan for optimizing tax efficiency and savings related to the transaction?
  • Have you estimated your cash flow needs after the transaction
  • To what extent do you expect to rely on proceeds of the sale to meet your post-transaction cash flow needs?
  • What are your post-sale goals?
  • Are there any family dynamics that might be a cause for concern when the sale happens?

3. Establish a realistic timeline.

This list of questions isn’t exhaustive, but it’s designed to help uncover risks and planning opportunities that are best addressed months, or even years, before the sale. Understanding your priorities is the first step in maximizing the success of your outcome.

Keep in mind that to increase your chances for a big win, it is essential that you coordinate with your professionals to tailor the results to your needs. At Whittier Trust, we have years of experience working with legal, accounting, and business advisory teams to ensure that the specifics of your deal will focus on the outcomes you seek from a holistic perspective. No two businesses are alike, just like no two families are the same, and we take pride in being the partner business owners can count on to pave the way for the result they want. Clients who have the most successful sales start thinking about the process early and focus on the personal results they want to achieve as well as the financial payout.

To learn more about how Whittier Trust can help you with the transition away from your business, start a conversation with a Whittier Trust advisor today by visiting our contact page.

From Investments to Family Office to Trustee Services and more, we are your single-source solution.

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Feb 21st

Aging: The Overlooked Risk Factor

Elder care is a personal and financial vulnerability many people fail to plan for.

Wealth can shield you from many of the hardships of life, particularly the discomforts of aging. Luxury retirement accommodations, private caregivers, and the best medical care can smooth the sometimes bumpy path of later years.

But money can’t insulate you from the personal complications of aging. Everyone has tough decisions to face and weighty conversations to initiate with loved ones. Having a knowledgeable partner to help facilitate those discussions and transitions is a privilege no one should forego if they can afford it.

“At Whittier Trust Company, elder care is integrated into the continuum of family office services we provide for clients in collaboration with trusted partner companies,” says André B. van Niekerk, Senior Vice President, Business Development. “Quite often, families end up facing complicated care decisions in the heat of the moment, after a hospitalization or other emergency. With our network of expert partners, we help families prepare for the inevitable and manage it when it comes.”

Failure to plan ahead for elder care makes your family vulnerable to financial risk as well as mental and emotional duress. Van Niekerk and his team spoke with one of Whittier’s partners, Barbara Oberman, CEO and President of Senior Living Solutions, about those risks and how they can be prevented or mitigated.

Crisis vs. Preparation

Making a decision in a time of crisis is never ideal. “It can be a trial by fire,” Oberman says. “I was fortunate that when my mother was hurt, I had already set up a plan, and it gave me the ability to act quickly and decisively.” 

Planning ahead with your Whittier team and exploring options for care in advance ensures you can make the most of available resources, such as long-term care insurance policies, which may help cover certain care expenses. Medicare and supplemental insurance primarily cover medical expenses, so understanding these limitations is key to preparing for non-medical or long-term care needs.

Overload vs. Confidence

Assisted living, independent living, board and care, memory care, or caregivers —there’s an entire spectrum of possibilities, and the differences are often hidden in the fine print. Do you need help with meal preparation or medication management? Do you want activities and socialization? Oberman recalls: “One client came to me after moving their father into assisted living. They were genuinely surprised to find he didn’t have someone by his side to take care of him all the time. But that 24/7 type of service only comes with a private caregiver. It was stressful for them to have to fix that mistake.” 

An upfront needs assessment avoids such mishaps by covering all the factors in advance, such as medical conditions, mobility levels, budget, preferred locations, desired activities, and cognition levels. “We’re like a real estate agent,” Oberman says. “We help you identify your needs and wants, then help you navigate the many moving parts until we reach the best solution. We help moderate tough conversations, analyze choices, and even assist in the move to a new place.” 

Liability vs. Expertise

It is important for families to realize that if you hire private caregivers, you become an employer, with payroll and management responsibilities. You must follow labor laws or you could put yourself in financial jeopardy. Homeowners' insurance typically covers visitors, but often doesn’t cover regular household workers. A reputable agency will handle background checks, pay taxes, and provide workers' compensation for caregivers. If you are certain private care is your preference, however, Whittier Trust and a consultant like Oberman can help you with those arrangements.

We can also help find the ideal senior living community. "Many of these communities are part of national chains, but each one is unique,” Oberman explains. “We build relationships with local staff, visit each community in person, and review their history (including any violations or required corrections). Senior living communities must meet state licensing requirements, and we carefully check these reports to ensure they provide high-quality care before making a recommendation. We know all the finer points of each company’s approach and care philosophy, amenities, and costs.” 

Sales Pressure vs. Concierge Service

The last thing you need during this difficult transition time is a heavy-handed sales pitch or dire warnings about waiting lists from a sales rep trying to meet monthly quotas. Your Whittier team safeguards you from such tactics, acting as your advocate in comparing different senior living options so you can make an informed decision without pressure. 

“As part of our concierge service, we go beyond just making recommendations,” Oberman says. “We arrange personal tours of the communities you wish to visit, help you navigate paperwork in advance, assist with negotiations to secure the most favorable terms and services and coordinate move-in arrangements. Additionally, we connect you with trusted professionals to assist with selling your home, managing estate sales, and downsizing. Through our network of senior advisors, we provide personalized support to make the transition as smooth and stress-free as possible. Then we’ll check in after the move to address any concerns and ensure everything meets expectations.”

Chaos vs. Consensus

Procrastination is likely to leave you in turmoil if an emergency arises and you’ve failed to talk to your family about elder care. We know it’s not easy, though, to organize such personal discussions or reach consensus with multiple family members and multiple generations. We can help facilitate these conversations, create a plan and budget and keep it updated for whenever it ends up being needed.

“At Whittier, we’re here to help you manage life’s many stressors while maintaining your family’s security, unity, and overall well-being,” says van Niekerk.

To learn more about how Whittier Trust's family office services can make a difference for you and your loved ones, start a conversation with a Whittier Trust advisor today by visiting our contact page.

From Investments to Family Office to Trustee Services and more, we are your single-source solution.

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Feb 18th

Managing Risk: Consistency Over Uncertainty

A calculated approach to risk management allows investment objectives to be met regardless of the conditions.

Managing risk is one of the most important portfolio management objectives. Risk is simply the possibility that an outcome will differ from what is expected or hoped for.

“Investment risk is like the wind on top of a mountain,” says Caleb Silsby, chief portfolio manager at Whittier Trust Company. “It’s unpredictable and often cannot be seen or even anticipated. The more calm the environment is around you, the less prepared you are likely to be when it hits.”

But with the right guidance and preparation, risk can be managed and planned for in a way that allows investment objectives to be met regardless of the conditions—to be understood rather than feared.

Whittier Trust offers a calculated approach to risk management that has served clients well through many market cycles. “We emphasize three interconnected mechanisms,” Silsby says, “And this trifecta has proven time and time again to generate strong returns for our clients.”

Recognizing the Risk Continuum

Most clients want more return than the bond market but less risk than the stock market. To achieve this outcome, Whittier Trust starts with an investment philosophy centered around owning quality companies. “With high-quality companies, you can own more of a higher returning asset class in your portfolio than you would with riskier, lower quality equities,” explains Silsby. “Whittier’s research team analyzes the history, management, and financials of these companies. When we refer to a stock as high-quality, it means the company has a clean balance sheet, strong management team, lasting competitive advantage, and strong returns on capital deployed.”

Minding the Bear

Correlation is a statistical tool for portfolio managers that indicates the degree to which securities move in relation to one another. Whittier Trust believes that in bear markets, correlations move to one (a perfect positive correlation), and the dollar tends to strengthen. “We are also mindful of currency impacts that often catch unwitting investors by surprise during bear markets,” says Silsby.

Whittier Trust has managed money through multiple market cycles and has seen the commonalities of bear markets. We employ thoughtful portfolio construction that anticipates a risk-off environment where risk assets will tend to move in synchrony. We set up portfolios with the anticipated market shifts in mind, which allows us to plan for the unexpected. During the 2022 bear market, the Whittier investment team anticipated the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hikes in response to inflation and maintained a constructive outlook despite widespread concerns and panic about a deep recession. Our disciplined approach emphasized a balanced perspective, suggesting that fears of stubborn inflation and severe economic downturns might be overstated. In 2023, amidst significant challenges such as regional bank collapses, Whittier Trust assessed the broader financial system’s resilience, predicting these crises would be “bumps in the road” rather than catastrophic events. This perspective proved revelatory, as markets rebounded, with the S&P 500 delivering a 26.3 percent total return for 2023. By aligning their investment strategies with key economic indicators and maintaining a steady hand, we have reinforced our reputation as a reliable partner in wealth management during challenging market cycles.

Playing the Long Game

Whittier’s formula for managing risk is focused on long-term investments. The market generates returns much more often than it doesn’t, making long-term investments one of the best ways to grow wealth. Silsby advises: “If you can be a long-term, patient investor who avoids being a forced seller, then the true risk to manage around is permanent loss of capital. Such losses most commonly arise through forced selling, uncontrolled equity dilution, or too much leverage.” Forward-thinking investors can ride out market volatility and take advantage of compounding returns, dividend growth, and capital appreciation.

As the oldest multifamily office headquartered on the West Coast, Whittier Trust Company has refined our approach to managing both short- and long-term risks over nearly four decades. As in everything we do, our guiding purpose as fiduciaries is to understand and meet clients’ overall goals and best interests, while working to ensure the resilience of their portfolios. With the long-term in mind, we can help protect clients, their families, and their legacies through uncertain economic trends and market fluctuations with tailored investment plans and our exceptional commitment to personal service.

To learn more about how Whittier Trust has approached portfolio management and managing risk for over thirty years as a multi-family office, start a conversation with a Whittier Trust advisor today by visiting our website.

To learn more about how Whittier Trust's calculated approach to risk can make a difference for your investment portfolio, start a conversation with a Whittier Trust advisor today by visiting our contact page.

From Investments to Family Office to Trustee Services and more, we are your single-source solution.

Contact Us
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Feb 14th

More than Wealth Management: The Whittier Difference

A fresh perspective from a recent addition to the team:

Sharon Perlin joined Whittier Trust Company in January 2023. With nearly 20 years of experience providing legal counsel, she frequently remarks on the distinctive qualities that set Whittier apart from other companies in the wealth management field. “Although there are countless ways in which Whittier stands out,” Sharon explains, “I’d like to share two key points where my clients and colleagues agree that Whittier offers a truly exceptional experience.”

Personal Attention

Perlin works with about 24 families in her role as Senior Client Advisor at Whittier. The norm in the industry is closer to what she experienced at her prior employer, where she was responsible for 180 accounts (some of which included up to nine trusts). There was no time to be proactive in her advising, she recalls, or to build meaningful relationships with her clients.

“At Whittier Trust, I speak with most of my clients on a weekly basis,” she says, “or sometimes even multiple times a week. This is so different from my time before, as a practicing attorney, when I would bill clients in six-minute increments. It’s hard to get to know someone when a client is aware that with every story they share, the bill increases. 

“At Whittier, I take the time to understand the history, values and dynamics of the families with whom I work. I know about the upcoming wedding, the new grandbaby and the son struggling with addiction. This knowledge is helpful when advising on estate and gift matters, too. At the same time, I stay current on legislative proposals and changes that might impact my clients’ estate and gift plans.”

Perlin gives an example of a client who recently sold a business in Illinois, with two phases to the sale. The first phase was recently completed, and phase 2 will be in two years. Because the client lives in California, she paid several million dollars in state taxes on the first phase of the sale. Over lunch one day, she shared with Perlin that she had just bought a house in Washington to spend more time with her grandchild. Perlin asked how long she typically planned to stay in Washington, and the response was, “At least half the year.” 

“I was aware that Washington has no state income tax,” Perlin recalls, “so I suggested the client become a Washington resident. I ran a domicile tax analysis and confirmed that the decision would be very favorable for her.”

Thanks to Perlin’s recommendation, the client will save millions in taxes on Phase 2 of the sale of her business. “She’s delighted,” Perlin comments, “and this never would have happened if we hadn’t taken the time to talk over lunch.”

Being part of the Whittier extended family also opens the door to relationships with other ultra-high-net-worth individuals with shared interests.  The company hosts special events throughout the year where clients can enjoy the camaraderie and elevated experience of our network of colleagues, clients and friends.

“Last month, I joined clients for a beautiful day at the Santa Barbara Polo and Racquet Club for a polo match hosted by Whittier,” Perlin says. “There was an open bar and delicious food and more than 100 attendees at this private event. A month later, one of the clients told me that she and her partner had now gotten together with two other couples they met at the match. That was the Whittier difference in a nutshell.”

Responsiveness

Whittier’s focus on clients’ needs is what drives the company’s internal processes as well. This means that advisors are empowered to be proactive in their guidance on investments, estate planning, philanthropy, taxes, real estate and other matters and that clients can always expect thoughtful and timely follow-ups to requests.

Perlin gives an example: “At my prior firm, if a client had a trust where the firm served as trustee, and they requested a discretionary distribution from the trust, it was an arduous process. They had to provide extensive supporting documentation, and then the request went to an out-of-office committee that met only twice a month. No one with decision-making authority had ever spoken to the client, and even as their advisor, I had no ability to weigh in on the request. Clients were frustrated and felt like the system was set up against them, rather than in partnership.” 

Such a request would typically be completed within hours at Whittier Trust. We serve as trustee on many of our clients’ trusts, and a client’s request for a trust distribution is vetted by a local committee, including the client’s advisor. In most cases, no supporting documentation is needed from the client because their advisor already knows the finer points of their financial status and understands their global balance sheet, cash flow needs, and family dynamics and circumstances. This allows us to quickly distribute funds, often on the same day.

“Whittier Trust is like no other firm I have experienced,” Perlin says. “I am thrilled to be a part of the Whittier team and to have deep personal connections with clients that are incredibly fulfilling for me. I hope if you’re reading this, you will reach out and talk to us about whether the Whittier experience would be beneficial for your family as well.”

 

To learn more about how Whittier Trust can make a difference for you, your family, and your estate, start a conversation with a Whittier Trust advisor today by visiting our contact page.

 

From Investments to Family Office to Trustee Services and more, we are your single-source solution.

Contact Us
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